The EU have released a 17 page "communication" advising The European Parliament, The Heads of state of EU 27, Two EU Committees and the ECB to prepare for a no deal exit (HERE). There is also an accompanying press release and list of the 68 Notices to Stakeholders already released (HERE). It is all in impeccable English as usual, something I want to return to later.
For me the most telling points in the communication are these. First of all, in the summary on page 1:
"However, there is no certainty that an agreement will be reached. And even if an agreement is reached, the United Kingdom’s relationship with the European Union will no longer be one of a Member State and thus, will be in a fundamentally different situation".
Next go to bullet point 3 on page 5 dealing with Scenario 2 - Withdrawal on 29th March 2019 without a withdrawal agreement:
"Border issues: The European Union must apply its regulation and tariffs at borders with the United Kingdom as a third country, including checks and controls for customs, sanitary and phytosanitary standards and verification of compliance with EU norms. Transport between the United Kingdom and the European Union would be severely impacted. Customs, sanitary and phytosanitary controls at borders could cause significant delays, e.g. in road transport, and difficulties for ports".
The Commission could have used words like "might" or "may" or "could" when describing the position of regulations and tariffs after our withdrawal, to give a bit of flexibility or comfort, but have chosen the far more final and emphatic "must" to precede "apply its regulation and tariffs".
I pick this example because (a) it's clear how carefully every word is weighed at the Commission, it cannot have been accidental and (b) it demonstrates at the moment they are not talking about "waiving" the rules to allow us to escape with minimal damage.
The communication was published on the day Dominic Raab was made to look a laughing stock (HERE) from a national laughing stock when it was reported that our schoolboy translation of the executive summary of our own white paper into the official languages of the EU was full of howlers and greeted with derision (HERE). He might have saved himself the embarrassment since it is also reported that British officials working in Brussels on EU legislation have been rebuffed in their behind-the-scenes efforts to win support for the white paper. In other words it's DOA anyway.
The Express even went so far as to hire a body language expert to look at the first appearance of Raab and Barnier together in Brussels (HERE) who describes the encounter in terms not very flattering to Raab, whom he says looked awkward:
“In body language terms, though, he was outflanked by Barnier whose cool, suave, ego-driven posturing suggested he barely noted Davis's replacement as a worthy adversary.”
And as if to remind us that we have not yet concluded the withdrawal agreement:
"A senior diplomat however dashed Mrs May's hopes that the white paper could provide the breakthrough, adding “we are not negotiating the White Paper, we are negotiating the withdrawal agreement. There won’t be a formal position on the White Paper".
This is the most important negotiation this country has been involved in for several generations. The process of reaching an agreement in government hss been like swimming through wet concrete weighed down by a drag anchor. Having struggled for two years to finally reach a position we know the EU will definitely reject, we can't even translate it properly for the 27 countries we need to convince. It's as if we don't even believe in it ourselves. So much for global Britain.
The EU are also privately making it clear that the Irish border backstop must be settled first. And a solution on that seems as far away as ever.
