ORB have released some interesting if not altogether surprising post-Salzburg polling (HERE). The regular monthly tracker shows that confidence in the government's ability to get a good deal has reached a record low of 22% and the PM's handling of the negotiations remains as stubborn as she is at just 24%. But it's the special post-Salzburg opinion that I think you will find fascinating and puzzling at the same time. Download the detailed polling figures HERE.
Amazingly (to me anyway) the result was 52% agreed and 43% disagreed. This was 66% of leave voters, which might be understandable, but 37% of Remain voters weren't interested either. This appears to indicate people have absolutely no interest in the deal itself and presumably if we left the EU while secretly remaining a member, they would be perfectly happy to be told we had a "deal".
The next statement was: I don't support a no deal Brexit where we leave the EU without a deal and trade on WTO terms (page 4).
The result was 48% agreed and 30% disagreed. Even 31% of leave voters disagreed with this. So, this slightly contradicts the first question. They are interested, assuming they knew what WTO terms were.
But the strangest response of all is to the statement: Looking back, I hadn't fully considered the complexity of what I was voting for in the referendum (page 6). Given what has emerged since the referendum one would have thought close to 100% would agree, but no:
The result was 61% disagreed and only 32% agreed. Just 6% didn't know.
Personally, I've been stunned at the sheer scale and wide ranging complexity of Brexit. It will touch every aspect of life in the UK for years to come, from prices in the shops to the way our law operates with a whole new class ("retained EU law") being introduced which we have never had before. Even John Moulton, financier and engaged Brexiteer said Brexit was "far more complicated than I imagined" (HERE). Yet 61% of the public think they had fully considered the complexity of Brexit before the referendum! Amazing. I read all I can (a lot) but even now barely scratch the surface of it.
What does this baffling stuff tell me? Firstly, that the 61% only THINK they fully considered the complexity. Most people are still totally unaware of what's coming down the track. The so-called "scaremongering" either wasn't heard or wasn't believed. Far from fully considering it they had no idea at all. This 61% represents over 20 million people.
Secondly, those 37% of the public (above), remainers who are not interested in the negotiations, what one might think of as soft remainers, will soon be very interested and will become much more vociferous, especially if their own jobs are at stake.
Is reality beginning to appear in the distant haze? Let us hope so.
Is reality beginning to appear in the distant haze? Let us hope so.
