The full text of Sir Ivan Rogers' Dublin speech on Brexit has been released. You can read it (HERE). If there is a single voice of reason in the UK, it is Sir Ivan's. In a relatively short speech he manages to set things in context, spell out a lot of home truths and point us in the direction that things must logically go. But I fear he is suggesting things which will not help remainers and in the long run will be detrimental to the UK.
"However tempting it is for capitals to think that, as the British have brought all this on themselves without much apparent thought or honesty as to what a post Brexit settlement could ever look like – an understandable accusation - any Brexit deal which was widely perceived as a humiliation, will not be a stable, lasting one".
On advocates of a no-deal exit:
"Advocates of “no deal” know this [It's not on] really. They know that a genuine “no deal” would bring several key sectors of the economy to a halt. So they argue that European self-interest will be the deus ex machina [God out of the machine] which delivers a whole set of legal mini deals ensuring that it’s all alright on the night. This is, I fear, simply delusional".
If we threatened not to pay the divorce bill:
"The EU would calculate that the UK would be back at the table with its chequebook out within the week".
The Nick Boles plan (HERE) to join EFTA and the EEA temporarily:
"This “Norway first, transiting to Canada” model, is of course, simply yet another pipe dream, which the EU has no reason to agree, even if it were a different Prime Minister coming to the table with it, and even if it were legally possible. Whether or not some other way out could have been sought two years ago, it is too late now. thers [sic] are not, in Autumn 2018, going to refashion the entire permanent EEA framework now so we can have some temporary comforts on our way to being a third country. I am tempted to say that only a Brit could imagine otherwise.
Why CETA is not an options either:
"Chequers as it stands, then, is a non starter with the EU. And I am not going to waste time by seeking to defend any of it, when even the Government which produced it seems unable to articulate its case. Which would have to start and end by explaining why a Canada type deal is so bad for the UK. Which it is. And which the Prime Minister knows. Which is why she has been on an odyssey seeking a non Norway non Canada way since she took office".
He resigns himself to Brexit. I think this is wrong, it isn't inevitable and I'm convinced it isn't what the majority want. If austerity led to Brexit, the paradox is that Brexit will only bring more of it. You can bank on this. And at the end of another ten years of austerity, with no end in sight, the fallacies of Brexit will be abundantly clear. Brexiteers have harnessed austerity to get something they have long dreamed of, but it will eventually see us back in the EU.
What Rogers is asking for is that the EU recognise the political problems of Mrs May in getting anything through parliament. He wants Barnier to offer a detailed political declaration on the future relationship which gives the UK good market access and enhanced cooperation in many other non trade areas. This would hand a victory to the Brexiteers and be a sell out for remainers. It would enable the UK to limp on and for Brexit to last much longer than it needs to. He believes some red lines have to be crossed and that's true but they must be the UK's red lines not the EU's.
The Brexiteers, who lied during the campaign, have consistently misled leavers, failed to appreciate the complex nature of Brexit or accept the economic damage it will bring, would be rewarded for all of it. This seems to me morally wrong.
This is all in pursuit of some mystical third way, a half way house between the EEA and a free trade deal. Sir Ivan says the EU are not going to rewrite the rules of the EEA to accommodate a member who is leaving. I really don't see how the EU can rewrite it's rules on third countries either, to cushion us from our own chosen folly. It shouldn't be done and I hope it isn't.
