WHY CETA IS NOT THE ANSWER

A few days ago, Nick Boles MP, a former minister was saying Chequers was dead and that we should park ourselves temporarily in the EEA - getting there via EFTA first - before spending a few years negotiating a CETA style free trade deal (HERE).  Now John Longworth, writing on Brexit Central, is calling for us to grab with both hands the EU's offer of a Canada style free trade deal (HERE). The difference is that Longworth wants to do it immediately and wouldn't countenance a temporary spell in the EEA.

But then we get a report like this (HERE) in the Irish Times saying that Theresa May and her allies are sticking with the Chequers plan, even though Barnier is reported to have been quite clear that the plan is dead (HERE).

To an outsider with a limited understanding of the issues a CETA type arrangement would seem to be attractive. It's on offer and many people in the PM's party would be perfectly happy to accept it. Why is she persisting with a plan widely seen as unacceptable, unworkable and totally flawed?

The answer is in her Florence speech (HERE):

"As for a Canadian style free trade agreement, we should recognise that this is the most advanced free trade agreement the EU has yet concluded and a breakthrough in trade between Canada and the EU. But compared with what exists between Britain and the EU today, it would nevertheless represent such a restriction on our mutual market access that it would benefit neither of our economies".

Some people in government are not quite so blinded by ideology as to think serious economic damage and perhaps thousands of job losses is an acceptable price to pay to leave the EU. This doesn't bother the Brexiteers.

And Mrs May's tongue-in-cheek phrase about "mutual market access" doesn't even begin to recognise the inequality in the relative sizes of our markets. Something that will have a huge bearing on future trade negotiations. We may be the fifth or sixth largest economy but the EU is the first at the moment and will easily be the second even after we leave. It will be about seven times our size.

Rogers says a no deal Brexit "would bring several key sectors of the economy to a halt" but this will also be true of a CETA style trade deal. Just-in-time manufacturing would cease if border checks are carried out - as they would have to be under CETA, otherwise Canada and probably others, would demand the same treatment for their goods. The only difference is that a no-deal Brexit would do overnight what a CETA deal would take another 21 months of transition to do. But the result would be exactly the same.

And the unanswered question is still: How would CETA help the Irish border issue? To this the Brexiteers have no answer, beyond saying the problem is a myth.