The prospects of a deal that I always thought was the most likely outcome seems to be growing, although all the encouraging stuff is still coming out of Brussels not Downing Street, which is still very tight-lipped about it. Perhaps the reason for the deafening silence over here can be better understood by this report in the Irish Examiner (HERE). Simon Coveney the Irish Foreign minister (what a contrast he is to BoJo and Hunt) is quoted as telling the Press Association:
“It is now time for the UK and EU’s talented negotiators to lock themselves into a room and complete the withdrawal agreement over the next two weeks".
“The EU Summit of October 17/18 must hear of progress for a special summit to be called in November. The Irish and EU position has not changed and the UK must deliver on its written commitments of last December and March. That is a backstop that guarantees no hard border in Ireland or related checks or infrastructure.
“We don’t want the backstop to ever be used, instead we want a close future trading relationship with the UK negotiated over the transition period of a managed Brexit. We believe this can be done and it is the responsibility of politicians to give the final push for a deal.”
Two weeks ago in Salzburg our proposals were "unworkable" (HERE). But now it seems that they are workable. Coveney is clear the Irish and EU position is the same as it was. Yet Juncker is quoted on the BBC (HERE) saying, "I have reason to think that the rapprochement potential between both sides has increased in recent days,"
So what's changed? What does he know? There must have been some movement but not apparently by Ireland or the EU. I wonder who became a bit more flexible? It doesn't take a genius to work it out does it?
“We don’t want the backstop to ever be used, instead we want a close future trading relationship with the UK negotiated over the transition period of a managed Brexit. We believe this can be done and it is the responsibility of politicians to give the final push for a deal.”
Two weeks ago in Salzburg our proposals were "unworkable" (HERE). But now it seems that they are workable. Coveney is clear the Irish and EU position is the same as it was. Yet Juncker is quoted on the BBC (HERE) saying, "I have reason to think that the rapprochement potential between both sides has increased in recent days,"
So what's changed? What does he know? There must have been some movement but not apparently by Ireland or the EU. I wonder who became a bit more flexible? It doesn't take a genius to work it out does it?
Things are panning out exactly as you would expect. All the threats of no deal were only ever threats, never realistic possibilities. And if a deal is not within reach in the next month, both sides would have needed time to get ready for a crash out. The weaker side has had to give way. Is anybody surprised that we are reaching the end game?
The Brexiteer rent-a-quote brigade are normally elbowing each other aside to get in front of the cameras but are strangely subdued. ITV are reporting the hard Brexiteers are prepared to take a softer line in order to reach a deal (HERE) including EU border staff based in UK ports to ensure goods conform to single market rules. As predicted by others, they will swallow anything to make sure we're out next March.
But they will be looking closely for the concessions they know Theresa May must have made If the EU are happy the ERG won't be. It's the quiet before the storm.
If we get a Canada plus, plus deal Jacob Rees-Mogg and the Brexiteers would be quite content so I assume we're getting closer to that - or at least that's what they expect. How this will go down with industry is not clear yet. I suppose if there is a delicate balance in these negotiations between politics and industry, the latter will always come off worse since they're not at the table. But their reaction afterwards will be interesting since a FTA is a very long way from frictionless. And the Irish border may still be an issue, a Canada FTA will not resolve that conundrum and neither will a UK wide customs union with the EU.
Theresa May has an article in The Guardian HERE appealing to Labour voters to take a look at the Conservatives. Why? Surely she isn't thinking about another election? If Brexiteers, the government and the EU are happy what's she worried about? The DUP? Or perhaps the Brexiteers haven't yet been shown the full details.
