Since it appears we are edging towards a Canada style FTA I think attention will soon start to focus on what plus, plus, plus means. Both sides have used this as a sort of shorthand for a few extras, some chrome plated embellishments, but what might they be? David Davis was famous for saying he made no apology for being ambitious and looking to achieve the "exact same benefits" in the future as have now.
"What we have come up with—I hope to persuade her that this is a very worthwhile aim—is the idea of a comprehensive free trade agreement and a comprehensive customs agreement that will deliver the exact same benefits as we have, but also enable my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for International Trade to go and form trade deals with the rest of the world, which is the real upside of leaving the European Union".
Well he seems to have achieved the first part of his idea, a comprehensive FTA. I assume in his mind the plus, plus, plus is a way of pushing the envelope of the FTA so that we get the "exact same benefits" as we have now. But look at Barnier's Stairway to Brexit:
What we have now is on the top step, Canada is the last step before WTO rules, just about as far from exact same benefits as you can get. The plus, plus, plus is somehow going to have to circumvent a lot of red lines in order to get to the top step. I can't see that happening. It's tantamount to dismantling the whole EU. Why would anyone be a member of a club that requires annual subscriptions, if you can get all the benefits without paying anything or sticking by the rules? I am sure we will also be thinking about services which represents 80% of our economy but are largely ignored in CETA and other FTAs.
On the other hand, the EU see the plus, plus, plus as meaning security cooperation, participation in scientific research and so on. Nothing at all to do with trade matters.
This will be the next big row but we won't even begin that until after March next year. And there is something less than zero chance of it all being concluded, agreed, ratified and implemented by December 2020. Industry will have to face several more years of uncertainty before they know in detail what actual border arrangements and immigration rules they will face. We will have avoided crashing out without a deal only to enter another 21 month period of argument while facing an unknown outcome.
Going on the experience of the last eighteen months watching the negotiations of what everyone said would be the "easy" part, my guess is that nothing will be settled on trade until the end of 2025 at least. And until everything is settled, and ratified by all the 30+ national and regional parliaments, industry cannot be certain of anything. By that time we will be about nine years on from the vote.
The important thing to remember is that there will be an election in 2022. If no final trade deal has been signed it will be not only a verdict on the government's handling of Brexit but also a referendum on what might have been settled by then. If the Tories lose Brexit will all be thrown open again.
The important thing to remember is that there will be an election in 2022. If no final trade deal has been signed it will be not only a verdict on the government's handling of Brexit but also a referendum on what might have been settled by then. If the Tories lose Brexit will all be thrown open again.
What will this uncertainty do to our economy? Not a lot. And wouldn't it be a turn up if we actually managed to get the "exact same benefits" but we also negotiate "the exact same obligations" and end up where we started - as a member of the EU!
