The Times claims this morning (HERE) that the PM is about to announce a policy change to break the impasse in the Brexit negotiations on the Irish border issue. It looks like another fudge to me. The plan apparently involves the whole UK staying in the Customs Union and the Common Commercial Policy indefinitely until a technological solution is available. It will mean accepting regulatory checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain. See the article (HERE). It is being described as a "Grand Bargain".
It is essentially an admission that the highly complex Facilitated Customs Arrangement dreamt up by the government with the help of McKinsey is a non-starter, as everybody said it was when first published in July. The change is another tiny fairy step towards a closer relationship with the EU.
Will it move anything forward? Perhaps. But Jacob Rees-Mogg and the ERG will never accept it and the DUP have already rejected the idea anyway according to The Times.
What it doesn't do is resolve the problem of regulatory divergence between the UK and the EU. The "Common Rule Book" is another non-starter which the government will finally have to admit sooner or later, and thus it does not help to provide "frictionless" trade at Dover and other ports.
So, there you have it. We will be unable to sign new trade deals whilst inside the CU and the CCP and we will still need regulatory checks at the borders between GB and the EU. It seems the worst of all worlds to me. Is it a grand bargain, a climbdown or a fudge? We shall see how Brussels reacts.
As soon as the government accepts the common rule book is unworkable we will then take another fairy step toward closer regulatory alignment and eventually be in the EEA - or an Association Agreement like Ukraine and people will begin to ask what Brexit has achieved. If we are going to be that close we may as well be in and helping to influence policy at the EU Council table.
