The past is often our best guide to the future so to predict what might happen in the next two weeks we should perhaps go back to early December 2017 when the PM was again trying to reach an agreement to show the EU at that time there had been "sufficient progress" on the separation issues. An "agreement" had seemingly already been reached - until the DUP caught sight of it and threatened to block the whole thing. Barnier then gave Mrs May 48 hours to reach an agreement with the DUP (HERE).
The idea was to get to something that would be acceptable to the EU, the DUP, the UK government and the Tory party.
Eventually, some sort of accord was reached with Arlene Foster and her Democratic Unionist colleagues and Mrs May dashed off to Brussels to sign what was presumably a revised version of what is now known as The Joint Report (HERE). It was a measure of how desperate Mrs May was to get talks going on the future relationship - although it was all wasted effort since she then took another seven months to cobble together a plan at Chequers for future trade that nobody now thinks is workable anyway.
In other words, there was really very little at stake, yet on the 8th December 2017, the prime minister took a plane at 4:30 in the morning from Northolt after two hours sleep, to get to Brussels (HERE) in time to hold an early morning press conference with Juncker who was off somewhere else later that day. I think this speaks volumes for where the balance of power was and still is - and it isn't Downing Street.
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| May in Brussels 8th December 2017 |
For all the tough talking yesterday, I expect something very similar. We will make more concessions but I do not believe the EU will accept a fudge. Let us not forget the document she agreed with the EU last year said this in paragraph 49:
"The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland."
So, after ten long months we still have no agreement on the Irish border question. The JR was simply a means to get over the line.
Now the stakes are far higher. We must get a deal, or at least the outline of something that looks like it might turn into a deal, by 18th October. If we need a bit longer, the EU is prepared to arrange an extraordinary summit in November - but only if there's real progress in the next two weeks.
I expect some explosive rows but she will concede more because the alternative is too terrible to contemplate. And probably another dash to Brussels to get something signed off. Nobody on this side of The Channel will be happy with what she comes back with and more political battles will lay ahead.
I expect some explosive rows but she will concede more because the alternative is too terrible to contemplate. And probably another dash to Brussels to get something signed off. Nobody on this side of The Channel will be happy with what she comes back with and more political battles will lay ahead.
If we cannot reach a deal acceptable to the EU in the next two weeks, I think both sides recognise they must then either (a) call the talks off and allow business and industry to plan for serious disruption in supply chains, aviation, tourism and a host of other area or (b) extend Article 50. The latter is the lower risk option but the EU will not extend the two year period unless they think a deal is possible. This is their big lever.
Five months is very short but fudging things now would only lead to a bigger cliff edge later.
Five months is very short but fudging things now would only lead to a bigger cliff edge later.
