Well, Theresa May managed to get the deal past the cabinet. It took five hours instead of the two hours planned and what she described as an "impassioned" argument - and given the civil service penchant for understatement, I take this as meaning there was mayhem. No resignations so far but the chief political correspondent at The Telegraph tweeted that 11 of 29 ministers spoke out against the deal so nowhere near unanimous support. Also, let us not forget, if the deal had not been agreed yesterday, there would have been the threat of having to start serious no-deal planning with the shock that would spark off. I suspect this was all part of the PM's plan. Get them to stare into the abyss.
I assume some ministers will go in the next few days. This would follow the same pattern as Chequers where Davis and Johnson endorsed the white paper, only to quit a few days later. Update: within minutes of this post Dominic Raab has resigned! Losing two Brexit Secretaries in the course of the negotiations looks very dangerous for the PM.
The draft agreement is HERE along with the outline of the future trade deal (HERE), both published last night. What to make of it? I don't know - it's not so much a backstop as a doorstop with it's 585 pages (and no index!), more than a ream of paper. I'll try and skim through it but brighter people than me will no doubt be poring over it as I write this so we'll get some expert opinions very soon.
On the surface it appears all the Brexit illusions have finally been shattered. The whole package points to a very soft Brexit with close regulatory alignment and a common customs area. BoJo said the other day we will be out of Europe but run by Europe and for once he was right. The question then is: why do it?
The BBC are reporting this morning that the UK can't withdraw from the customs union without "mutual consent" and then on the very first page of the political outline for a future trade deal, it talks of an "ambitious customs arrangements that build on the single customs territory provided for in the Withdrawal Agreement" so it appears we will always be in some sort of customs arrangement whatever happens. Brexiteers will never accept this. Also, the "Extent of the United Kingdom’s commitments on customs and regulatory cooperation, including with regard to alignment of rules, to be taken into account in the application of checks and controls at the border" so frictionless trade comes at the price of close alignment of rules. Watch out for more "vassal state" accusations this morning when Mrs May makes a statement in parliament.
It's hard to suppress a laugh when The Telegraph, that serious, heavyweight and fervently pro-Brexit organ, prints an article with the headline (HERE): "Theresa May must come clean: her Brexit deal is a dog's breakfast (but is still the best thing on a desultory menu)". Anybody remember that one from the side of the red bus?
Meanwhile, The Daily Mail said (HERE) the "Regulatory border in the Irish Sea, an INDEFINITE transition period, and the UK 'swallowing' EU rules: Brexit deal lays bare compromises made by May". I thought we held all the cards? The EU were supposed to compromise weren't they? When it came to who blinked first, it was Mrs May who developed the tic. The pattern will be repeated in spades during the trade negotiations.
Meanwhile, The Daily Mail said (HERE) the "Regulatory border in the Irish Sea, an INDEFINITE transition period, and the UK 'swallowing' EU rules: Brexit deal lays bare compromises made by May". I thought we held all the cards? The EU were supposed to compromise weren't they? When it came to who blinked first, it was Mrs May who developed the tic. The pattern will be repeated in spades during the trade negotiations.
Let's be honest, the EU have run rings around us for eighteen months - and we can look forward to another five years of it at least. In fact if the past two years are anything to go by the EU will run rings around us for ever. Our politicians have demonstrated a level of ignorance and incompetence second to none in our history and this is the crew who will have complete control of the nation after Brexit. Be very afraid.
If Michael Gove was right and we did hold all the cards, we should think ourselves lucky we weren't dealt a pair of dueces. Think where we might be if that had happened.
Finally, I don't usually link to the Guido Fawkes blog because I think Paul Staines, who runs it is a mischievous and divisive figure, far too nationalist and right wing for his own good, but he quotes Barnier's Deputy, Sabine Weyand (HERE), and not altogether approvingly, speaking to EU ambassadors in Brussels and saying:
“We should be in the best negotiation position for the future relationship. This requires the customs union as the basis of the future relationship… They must align their rules but the EU will retain all the controls. They apply the same rules. UK wants a lot more from future relationship, so EU retains its leverage.”
"Weyand also said that the UK would be forced to concede on fisheries, one of the last remaining red lines May is attempting to cling to, saying that the UK “would have to swallow a link between access to products and fisheries in future agreements”.
I think for Brexiteers, this would be the coup de grâce for the deal, if it wasn't already dead. There was no chance of it getting through parliament before this story appeared in the FT, now there is less than no chance.
As for fishermen, I wouldn't be counting any chickens - if you know what I mean - or come to think of it, perhaps they should?
Leo Varadkar is happy so the DUP definitely won't be. He said yesterday was one of his "better days in politics" (HERE). Even Theresa May's former aide Nick Timothy, says the deal is a victory for the EU (HERE) and capitulation by his former boss rather than compromise. When your friends turn against you the end is very close.
