Saturday 24 November 2018

SPAIN THREATENS TO BLOCK THE DEAL

Spain is playing last minute hard ball over Gibraltar, demanding Article 184 of the WA contain an explicit reference to the fact that negotiations over the Rock are separate to the withdrawal agreement (HERE). They are threatening not to attend the summit in Brussels on Sunday even as Theresa May travels there today for final discussions with Jean Claude Juncker.
 
Guido Fawkes, that enthusiastically pro Brexit web site was cockily pointing out (HERE) that the summit will decide the Withdrawal Agreement on qualified majority voting (QMV) and therefore Spain doesn't have a veto. "No, Spain cannot veto Brexit",  proclaims Guido Fawkes, ridiculing the Spanish PM:
 
"Spain’s new Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has only been in the job since the summer, but that’s no excuse for his laughably incorrect tweet last night suggesting Spain could somehow 'veto Brexit.'"
 
They may not be laughing quite so loudly today. It only demonstrates the lack of understanding of how the EU works. What Fawkes says may technically be true for the WA but note what Katya  Adler, the BBC's Europe editor says (HERE):
 
"Although one country on its own cannot stop the withdrawal agreement being approved, there is 'no way' the EU can rubber stamp a text when an existing member is so strongly opposed",

There is some irritation with Spain in the EU but also solidarity with them too. Spain’s EU minister, Luis Marco Aguiriano, told reporters in Brussels (HERE) after a meeting of negotiators that the EU had offered Madrid “a package” of measures to meet its demands.

And to make the point quietly but forcefully he reminded everyone that the future relationship between the UK and the EU will have the legal form of an international treaty and, as such, require ratification by all remaining EU member countries, including Spain.

So in any case, we would still have a veto in the end,” he said. “What we’re trying to do is … clarify everything at the beginning precisely to be able to avoid such a veto.

Embarking on years of negotiations knowing that one of the parties that holds a veto will vote against it, is not a good way to begin.

This should be a pointer to our future relationship with the EU. There will be plenty of issues that will come up during the trade talks which are just as contentious for plenty of other countries, each with their own self-interest and every single one holding a veto, some with several vetoes because they have regional parliaments too.

Guido Fawkes can pretend Britain has a strong position but the truth is we haven't.

And this won't be limited to the EU, when (or if) we begin trade talks with the USA or China or India we will find exactly the same. Every country in the world knows that we will be desperate to conclude trade deals because (a) we've shouted it from every rooftop and (b) we've dropped out of all the free trade agreements that the EU has at present. If anybody thinks they won't exploit that to the full, please get in touch with me. I might have a bridge in London for sale.