Friday 23 November 2018

THE BREXIT ROAD GOES ON FOREVER

Adam Fleming is the BBC's Brussels correspondent and he was on TV several times yesterday talking as you would expect on the draft of the political declaration. But one point he made might have come as a shock to many. He says if the deal is finally agreed the trade talks can then begin in earnest. Fleming said he expected to be reporting on it "for years - even decades" and looking forward no doubt to a permanent posting in Brussels.

And catching the same theme, Ambrose Evans Pritchard writes in The Telegraph (HERE). He tells readers the Withdrawal Agreement was the easy part. The nightmare is about to begin. This is the long, hard grind where all the difficult stuff like fishing will have to be resolved but this time every single nation of the EU27 will have two additional and absolutely crucial advantages. First, they may have some vital national or special interest they want to preserve or defend and second, a veto over the trade deal since being a mixed agreement, it needs unanimity.

The foothills are now behind us, the mountain lies ahead.

Even the Daily Express (HERE) says - in 1940s Churchillian fashion - "this is not the end, not even the beginning of the end but it is perhaps the end of the beginning". It seems to be warning the nation to gird its loins for the next few years rather that expect sunlit uplands.

And since nations and blocs are dynamic creations anyway, forever seeking to legislate new controls to improve society or help the environment, we will effectively be negotiating with the EU forever. Brexit is not a fleeting, temporary thing but will become a permanent part of our lives. Moreover, since the EU, already a regulatory superpower, can only get bigger as more countries join, negotiating with them will never be easy. Their interests will always come first.

Or perhaps not. This is all predicated on the deal getting through the House which at the moment seems quite impossible. In fact if Mrs May fails to guide the Withdrawal Agreement through, it may be the first nail in the coffin of Brexit.

It may actually be the beginning of the end.