The Sunday Times had some rich pickings yesterday, apart from the imbecile Davis writing under his own name, we had an article (HERE) about Liam Fox and his global trading fantasies. If I was Fox I wouldn't bother to read it, it is not good news. The title is: Liam Fox’s dream of a global Britain hits the rocks. The sub-title: Despite the hype, no country will make a trade alliance until our deal with the EU is clear. The writer is a Tony Stubbington.
The article is one of the best I've seen in a national newspaper. It sets out clearly the major problems but if there is one thing it doesn't explain to readers is the sheer ignorance of those involved about the state of British industry. None of them seem to have a clue.
Fox himself is a medical doctor and wouldn't know a variable speed drive from a spoke-shave. He has hired a bloke named Crawford Falconer, a New Zealander who again has no first hand knowledge of UK industry. The other major player is Shanker Singham, formerly of the Legatum Institure and now at the IEA, an associate of Falconer and an advisor to government ministers. He is described as a trade lawyer. They clearly think British Industry is a lean, mean competition machine being throttled by those dastardly Eurocrats in Brussels.
An exasperated voice of realism comes across from Adam Marshall, director-general of the British Chambers of Commerce who is quoted as saying:
“The way for the UK to up its game around the world starts with having the best products and services, the most competitive environment here at home to grow a business, and a great global marketing and promotion operation. Trade agreements make a big difference only when these fundamentals are in place.”
Which is what I have been saying for twenty years or more. The EU does not hold us back. We are not 'shackled' by EU regulations, bureaucracy or red tape. Our shortcomings are our shortcomings and no one else is to blame. If Fox, Falconer and Singham think we are going to have the best products and services by next March they are in for a big shock.
Marshall says:
“The problem is that some in Westminster view new trade agreements, particularly with the US, as the definitive and symbolic ‘answer’ to the question of the UK’s place in the world after Brexit,”
And in any case, we keep banging up against the problem of not knowing what our trading relationship with the EU will be for years and years. This is the first question that putative new trading partners will be asking as soon as we try to start initial talks. Without knowing if their goods are exportable from the UK to the EU - a market seven times the size of ours - they cannot possibly know the value they can put on an FTA. Michael Gasiorek, an economist at Sussex University’s UK Trade Policy Observatory says:
“I don’t think the DIT has to sit on its hands until 2020. However, it’s unclear how far these talks can actually go. Other countries will want to know what relationship we will have with the EU before they get down to the nitty-gritty. At the moment, global Britain has been put on the back burner.”
David Davis once said we would have a trade deal with the EU ready by next March. This is so stupid it doesn't even deserved a comment. Fox (don't laugh) said in October last year (HERE) that:
David Davis once said we would have a trade deal with the EU ready by next March. This is so stupid it doesn't even deserved a comment. Fox (don't laugh) said in October last year (HERE) that:
"We're going to replicate the 40 EU free trade agreements that exist before we leave the European Union so we've got no disruption of trade," Fox told a Conservative party fringe event in Manchester.
"I hear people saying 'oh we won't have any [free trade agreements] before we leave'. Well believe me we'll have up to 40 ready for one second after midnight in March 2019," he told cheering Tory activists".
More than a year later, when Fox was questioned about these 40 FTAs in a select committee hearing on 1st November, (HERE) he conceded that
“it is not quite as simple as rolling them over,” and admitted the
government has no binding agreement on any of the deals. He did say that
all countries have expressed their intention to “continue where we
are.” I don't see anything explicit in the Withdrawal Agreement or the Political Declaration but as I understand it, we drop out of all 40 after March 29th next year - whatever happens - and we'll rely on the other countries to continue treating us as if we are still an EU member. More on this HERE
I wonder what he'll tell his 'cheering Tory activists' next year? Mind you they're all as dim as he is, you can keep them on side and simmering for years and years. Like political commissars under Stalin they'll be looking to see who stops cheering first - they're the ones to watch.
