LEAVING WITH NO DEAL - MAD AS A BOX OF FROGS

By one of those strange coincidences The Sunday Times had a couple of fascinating and inadvertently linked articles this week on the wisdom or otherwise of leaving the EU without a deal, one by David Davis and another by someone who actually knew what they were talking about. David Smith is the Sunday Times long standing economics editor with a regular column in the business section.

I have followed Smith for more years than I care to remember. He is knowledgeable and well respected. This is an extract from his column:

"[All credible analysis confirms] if you make it harder to trade with your main trading partner and reduce EU immigration, your economy will suffer relative to the base case. There are gains from trade deals elsewhere, but they are tiny in comparison. 

"We also know that if you take the mad hatter, a field full of March Hares, a box of frogs and the pop group madness, a no-deal Brexit is madder than all these combined.

"Those who talk blithely about flouncing off without a deal are engaging in the height of irresponsibility".

And then we go to the main paper to find Davis talking 'blithely about flouncing off without a deal', something that would inter alia be madder than a box of frogs, according to Smith. Only Davis doesn't see it that way of course, in fact his article has the title: This is not crashing out. This is escaping the EU's dead hand. The opening paragraph calls for an 'acceleration of preparations for leaving without a deal' - the so-called madder than a box of frogs solution. You can read Davis' article HERE.

I'm not sure if the two men knew what the other was intending to write but Davis looks like a complete fool - or shall I say more of a fool than he normally looks. Fancy advocating a no-deal solution when a leading economist in the same publication describes it as madness and those calling for it as engaging  in the height of irresponsibility.  You can be sure it won't affect Davis, he is too stupid to be embarrassed.

A few extracts from his 'box of frogs' article:

"Leaving on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms is not as good as a free trade agreement, but it is not something to be afraid of".

"It is also conventional wisdom that we will be hurt most by a “no deal” outcome. This does not take into account the unique advantages that we will have under such a World Trade Organisation deal. And of course we have the upside that no other single country in Europe has, namely the prospect of tailored free trade deals with our biggest customers in the rest of the world".

Note that WTO terms are 'not something to be afraid of' - although this is what he claims Brexit is all about, the ability to sign new trade deals to overcome the WTO terms that we have at the moment with some nations. The 'upside' of leaving what is by far our biggest customer without a deal is the prospect of 'tailored free trade deals with our biggest customers'. One is simply stunned by his irrational thinking.

As readers of this blog will know, I never thought we could leave without a deal. The consequences would be so dire, no government could even contemplate it. As time has passed I am increasingly certain we will not crash out and the main reason is dishonesty. Nick Cohen writes about it HERE, essentially it's about politicians not being straight with voters.

Had Mrs May delivered a blood, toil, tears and sweat speech in October 2016 and laid the ground for some serious if perhaps temporary hardship, leaving with no deal might now be thinkable. Instead we had the old no-deal-is-better-than-a-bad-deal mantra and now nobody is prepared for it since it isn't seen as even a mild inconvenience. The real impacts have been hidden by the dishonesty of government ministers and the decision not to be straight with voters.

So, Mrs May has to find a deal, however she can and whatever conditions she's forced to accept. No deal is just not an option.