Two important documents were published yesterday. One was the long awaited and much delayed White Paper on immigration (HERE) and the other was the EU's no-deal contingency measures (HERE) plus some FAQs (HERE) on the same topic. I think it fair to say that the White Paper has met with a barrage of condemnation from a huge range of individuals and bodies from the Mayor of London to the Federation of Master Builders (HERE).
The Guardian HERE say the immigration proposals reveal the prime minister's weakened position in that she has had to concede the target of getting immigration into the tens of thousands, which has effectively been abandoned, and the £30,000 minimum income for new migrants will now be put out to consultation thus delaying any immigration legislation for months.
Since business is adamantly opposed to such a high cap the £30,000 figure will almost certainly be cut significantly. Those employing seasonal agricultural workers will be relieved. The consultation will take twelve months, so if we exit in March without a deal we'll have no immigration policy.
In the long term immigration numbers are unlikely to change much at all. Those who thought 'control' meant 'reduce' will be disappointed. The Mirror claims low skilled migration from the EU will continue until 2025 anyway under a temporary short term visa scheme which will allow unskilled workers to come here for a year at a time (HERE). Some of this stuff is right out of the pages of The Grapes of Wrath.
As for the EU's no-deal advice it is, as usual, concise and a model of clarity. ITV (HERE) like many other news outlets focus on the actions that the EU intend to take which are "limited to specific areas where it is
absolutely necessary to protect the vital interests of the EU" and will
be "temporary in nature, limited in scope and adopted unilaterally by
the EU". However, businesses will be more interested in what the advice says on page 7:
"If the Withdrawal Agreement is not ratified, all relevant EU legislation on imported goods and exported goods will apply as of the withdrawal date. This includes the levying of duties and taxes and the respect of the formalities and controls required by the current legal framework, in order to ensure a level playing field"
In other words we will become a third country with all that that entails for customs and border controls.
The financial sector might be interested in this blog post HERE where EU law expert Guy Lougher of Pinsent Masons says:
"The measures proposed by the Commission are very
targeted and they are generally temporary in nature, limited in scope
and adopted unilaterally by the EU. The measures envisaged by the EU are
the minimum necessary to provide limited, continued basic connectivity
between the EU and the UK in a 'no deal' scenario. They are no
substitute for businesses undertaking their own structured contingency planning, to minimise as far as possible the likely impacts of a 'no deal' outcome."
Finally, Ross Clark a journalist, confirmed Brexiteer and free market economist, is writing in The Spectator blogs (HERE) about the EU advice. Having achieved his life's ambition to get Britain out of the EU and to 'take back control,' he now effectively accuses the EU of administering a 'punishment beating':
"After a no-deal Brexit, [The EU] says, it would only guarantee ‘basic
connectivity’ of transport links – i.e. those demanded by international
agreements such as the 1968 Vienna Convention on Road Transport. Road
hauliers from the UK, it says, will temporarily be allowed to carry
goods to the EU, but only until 31 December 2019. UK-registered airlines
will be allowed to operate point-to-point flights from the UK to EU
airports, but only until 30 March 2020 – and they won’t be allowed to
take passengers between EU airports.
"Bus operators would be allowed to
run services but only on an occasional basis – not scheduled services.
UK train-drivers will not be allowed to drive trains in the EU – so
Eurostar trains will presumably have to employ EU drivers or else halt
at Folkestone so that British drivers can be replaced. Banks will no
longer be able to provide payment services in EU countries – although it
does concede that internationally-recognised credit and debit cards
will continue to be used, albeit without EU caps in fees charged".
Having campaigned to separate Britain from the EU he now rails that the EU is going to separate itself from Britain. Opting for Brexit will damage the EU (although it will damage the UK more) but Clark complains that the EU is not rolling the red carpet to allow us to inflict damage on them. How unreasonable is that?
You couldn't make it up could you?
