LATTEST POLLING - 59% WOULD VOTE TO STAY IN THE EU

Peter Keller is the head of YouGov pollsters and has been conducting surveys on Brexit since Brexit was invented. They are behind most of the WhatUKthinks series for The Times. His most recent poll was for the People's Vote and has a sample size over 5,000 so pretty accurate stuff. See it HERE.

Kellner himself has a piece in The Guardian HERE about the results which must surely affect the thinking of ministers as we go into the Brexit end game. His article is titled, The polls are clear: support for staying in the EU has rocketed.

By rocketed he means support for remaining in the EU has reached 59% compared to 41% who would support May's deal. This is a huge 18% lead.

The interesting figures are on pages 10 and 11.

In answer to the question: If there were a public vote, and the choice were to stay in the EU or leave on the terms recently negotiated by the Government, how would you vote? The poll showed:-

Stay in in the EU 45%
Leave the EU on the terms negotiated by the Government 31%
Would not vote 11%
Don’t know 12%

And if the don't knows/wouldn't votes are excluded the poll is 59% stay in the EU and 41% leave with Mrs May's deal. This is a big lead.

But more interesting again is the breakdown of the figures when the way people voted in 2016 was asked. 91% of those who voted remain in 2016 would vote to stay in the EU now with just 9% opting for May's deal.

Of those who voted to leave in 2016, just 84% would opt for May's deal while 16% would vote to stay in the EU.  This indicates a considerable level of switching to me, with remain winning out by a net 7%.

And another indicator is the number of people who voted in the referendum in 2016 who would not vote again is much higher for leave voters than for remain voters - 2% of remain voters are certain not to vote, while 9% of leave voters are certain not to vote. This again is more than enough to ensure remain wins a second vote.