I think Mrs May's deal needs a stake driving through its heart. Every time you think it's dead, up it pops again. The PM is said to be contemplating a fourth vote in the House this week. Time is now very tight. The EU need a concrete plan in time for the emergency summit Tusk has called for April 10th, this means we have until Monday 8th to come up with a plan B.
Mrs May is still desperately anxious for Plan B to look exactly like Plan A and is going to pit her deal against whatever downy soft alternative Brexit that MPs might suddenly find on Monday or even Wednesday. The WA might look very attractive by Thursday next week, even to the most swivel eyed Brexiteer. It's important for our cause that MPs don't crack so I thought it would be useful to look at last Friday's vote, which the government lost 286 - 344. We should not kid ourselves the 58 vote margin will not go down quite a bit if there is a fourth vote.
There are 314 Conservative MPs. 277 voted for the deal, 3 abstained and 34 voted against. The final 286 supporting the deal was made up of 277 Tories, an Independent Unionist (Lady Hermon), 3 independent MPs and 5 Labour rebels.
Of the 34 who voted against, 28 are hardline no-deal Brexiteers and 6 are remainers. One of the Tory abstainers is Elanor Laing, a deputy speaker who has always abstained and won't vote anyway.
If all 28 ERG members who voted against the deal last week, throw in the towel this week the government could muster 314 maximum. The opposition would be at 316 - assuming there are no more Labour rebels. In other words, it's incredibly tight.
The FT has a nice bit of interactive graphic (HERE) where you can play around with the numbers and the parties. There were 4 abstentions last week, two on each side so I assume there was some pairing going on, but maybe not - one Labour abstention was Dennis Skinner, a well known Eurosceptic who has voted against the deal twice previously but could perhaps be weakening.
I don't expect the DUP to change their minds, all 10 have voted solidly against the deal every time.
If you want to see the MPs who are crucial to making the final wooden stake for May's deal and the possible switchers who could see it revived in MV4, I list them at the bottom of this post.
A potential general election? No.
After I posted yesterday that in my opinion a GE was out of the question, The Guardian (HERE) have a report with several prominent Tory MPs saying exactly the same thing.
Mark Francois, a member of the European Research Group of pro-Brexit MPs, said there was “not a chance” that Conservative MPs would back an election under May. “‘Of course they wouldn’t – not after last time. And remember, she needs a super majority to do it.”
This reference to a 'super majority' is the Fixed Term Parliaments Act which requires two thirds of MPs to vote to have a GE called. Labour and the opposition can muster 324 votes maximum so she needs around 92 Tory MPs to support it and I do not believe they will.
Nigel Evans is executive secretary of the powerful 1922 Committee of Tory back benchers and said an election was a terrible idea that the cabinet would block. “I don’t believe the cabinet would allow her to do it,” he said. “Theresa May cannot call an election, she cannot be the leader who would lead us into it. The party would not tolerate it.”
If he doesn't know the mood of the party no one does.
The prime minister's options are slowly being reduced and there are very few good ones left. If she is convinced her deal is indeed the best available, the only way she is going to see it on the statute book is by way of a people's vote. And it can only be to confirm it is her deal or remain.
Hardliners will push for leaving without a deal also to be on the next ballot paper but I do not believe any responsible government could do it. If the 2016 referendum was a gamble, it would be nothing compared to the utterly reckless folly of giving people that choice, people who have been consistently told no deal was better than a bad deal.
I really think we are getting closer and closer to a Tory party split later year. If so, Brexit will have been useful in helping to reverse thirty years of Euro-scepticism and beginning to rebuild Britain's place in Europe.
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The Labour MPs supporting the government but now with careers on the line are these:
Labour rebels:
Kevin Barron (Labour - Rother Valley)
Rosie Cooper (Labour - West Lancashire)
Jim Fitzpatrick (Labour - Poplar and Limehouse)
Caroline Flint (Labour - Don Valley)
John Mann (Labour - Bassetlaw)
The recalcitrant Tories who have resisted the deal up to now are these:
Conservative Brexiteer rebels:
Adam Afriyie (Conservative - Windsor)
Steve Baker (Conservative - Wycombe)
John Baron (Conservative - Basildon and Billericay)
Peter Bone (Conservative - Wellingborough)
Suella Braverman (Conservative - Fareham)
Andrew Bridgen (Conservative - North West Leicestershire)
William Cash (Conservative - Stone)
Christopher Chope (Conservative - Christchurch)
James Duddridge (Conservative - Rochford and Southend East)
Mark Francois (Conservative - Rayleigh and Wickford)
Marcus Fysh (Conservative - Yeovil)
Philip Hollobone (Conservative - Kettering)
Adam Holloway (Conservative - Gravesham)
Ranil Jayawardena (Conservative - North East Hampshire)
Bernard Jenkin (Conservative - Harwich and North Essex)
Andrea Jenkyns (Conservative - Morley and Outwood)
David Jones (Conservative - Clwyd West)
Julian Lewis (Conservative - New Forest East)
Julia Lopez (Conservative - Hornchurch and Upminster)
Craig Mackinlay (Conservative - South Thanet)
Anne Marie Morris (Conservative - Newton Abbot)
Priti Patel (Conservative - Witham)
Owen Paterson (Conservative - North Shropshire)
John Redwood (Conservative - Wokingham)
Laurence Robertson (Conservative - Tewkesbury)
Andrew Rosindell (Conservative - Romford)
Lee Rowley (Conservative - North East Derbyshire)
Theresa Villiers (Conservative - Chipping Barnet)
Conservative Remainer rebels:
Guto Bebb (Conservative - Aberconwy)
Justine Greening (Conservative - Putney)
Dominic Grieve (Conservative - Beaconsfield)
Sam Gyimah (Conservative - East Surrey)
Joseph Johnson (Conservative - Orpington)
Phillip Lee (Conservative - Bracknell)
I pulled these names from the Scottish Herald (HERE). I have split the Tory MPs into hardliners and remainers myself and although I'm confident, I don't guarantee they are all in the correct camp. Apologies to any that I may have got wrong.
