I suppose we should be celebrating a small victory today. We're still in the EU as I knew we would be on March 30th 2019. Entirely predictably, MPs rejected the Withdrawal Agreement yesterday afternoon by 286 to 344. Even after squeezing the Brexiteers until the pips squeaked, threatening everybody with everything from no deal to no Brexit, Theresa May was unable to get the House of Commons to ratify the agreement.
The defeat was by a relatively small margin compared to MV1 and MV2 but still a historically huge 58 against the government's flagship - some say ONLY - policy. It lays bare the PM's sheer incompetence in her management of the Brexit process from the very beginning.
I think many people believed the two year Article 50 period was a bit tight but did anybody, in their wildest dreams or nightmares, think we would have used up all 730 days and got absolutely nowhere? It is a stunning indication of the impossible contradictions and complexity of Brexit and the incapability of our political class to begin to address an issue that has racked the nation for three long years.
Are we facing a general election?
I hear talk of an election but this to me is out of the question. May is a lame duck and surely cannot lead the Conservative party into an election even if she wanted to. The party would never let her loose with another election campaign after her disastrous performance in 2017.
Writing the Tory manifesto would also be an almighty problem. It takes some imagination to see Bill Cash and Owen Paterson standing on the same ticket as Phillip Lee, Jonathan Djanogly and Antoinette Sandbach.
If it did take place I assume it would be a choice between a soft Labour Brexit and a hard Conservative one but with no certainty that it would deliver a clear result, although the public is closer to the Labour position in most opinion polls. Let's be honest, in an election which is in the balance as this one would be, only a few seats actually change their MP, so 90% of the House will be exactly the same as it is now. Tories associations may choose more Eurosceptic MPs but Labour at the grassroots is more pro-EU so they will probably cancel each other out.
In any case, if you accept that May cannot lead her party, and it seems obvious to me that she can't, the first thing that the Tories need is a leadership contest which will take weeks to organise, spill copious amounts of blood, split the party down the middle and then plunge the new leader into a general election. It would be an absolute roller coaster few months followed by the new parliament - and with no guarantee either of a Conservative government or a pro or anti Brexit majority - and still trying to find a solution to Brexit.
The Conservatives might also be wary of a general election for other reasons. The right is split badly. UKIP is still there and will steal some votes while Farage has a new Brexit party and they will no doubt field at least a few candidates. Dominic Grieve lost a confidence vote last night (HERE) and is one of several Tory MPs facing deselection. Some will stand as independents, others will join the TIGs (The Independent Group - soon to be called Change). It would be surprising if that didn't cost more seats. Rebel MPs may not be popular with their associations but have a high profile and a big following in the general public.
A lot of voters will blame the Tories for the utter fiasco of Brexit. It is not a natural disaster or even a financial crisis. The Tory party conceived it, launched it, drove it, whipped up support for it, argued about it and delivered the dog's breakfast all by themselves. They own it. It has Made in Conservative Central Office stamped all over it.
All of this in my view makes a GE unthinkable and People's confirmatory vote almost a certainty.
Either way we are in for a long delay and we can look forward to the European elections in May.
A fourth meaningful vote is on the way.
This morning, the BBC are reporting (HERE) the government is indeed looking at ways to put Mrs May's deal to parliament for a fourth time as a run off between that and whatever emerges from the cross party indicative voting arrangements to be carried out on Monday. What Bercow will say is not known but if he allows it, it might even succeed with the last of the few in the ERG voting for the WA. A few Labour rebels to make up for the DUP and diehard Tory remainers, who will oppose it again, and Mrs May could be there.
If there is another attempt next week, note that Ken Clarke's customs union amendment received 264 votes although the SNP abstained. If they had switched to supporting it with their 35 MPs it would have been the most popular with 299 votes. Next week may be even more gripping than last week.
If she fails again and an alternative proposal is cobbled together at the last second, is Theresa May the right person to put it to the EU? Probably not. She has zero credibility in Brussels.
The intractable problem
One of the central conundrums of Brexit revealed itself in a telling moment among the pro Brexit protesters in Parliament Square yesterday. When the result of the vote to reject the deal was announced. Half of them cheered and the other half booed! The leave side are themselves completely fragmented.
The largest single cohesive and unified bloc of the electorate is made up of remainers who are clear about what they want. Leavers were always members of a seething coalition of different, irreconcilable versions of Brexit who can never reach a consensus except to vote down anything that smacks of not leaving. The trick in 2016 was to allow them all to campaign under one banner and to get 51.9% of the vote. Now real decisions have to be made and time has run out. The PM has been trying for two years to forge a new coalition for her particular version of Brexit and has failed - as will anyone else who tries. It is just not possible.
Ardent Brexiteers can now see only a worse deal than the one we've got. Instead of Britain magically and mysteriously being transformed into a great buccaneering powerhouse of international trade, we will be meekly following EU rules under all foreseeable circumstances. Their great Brexit dream will lay in ruins but it's the best they can hope for. Is it enough? For some, no.
The disappointed leavers only face more disappointment
The leave means leave protest that ended in Parliament Square yesterday, the day they thought we would be leaving the EU, was a rally for people who had failed to keep up with things over the last few months. Anybody who thought we would leave last night was destined to be disappointed whatever happened. Even if MPs had voted in January for May's deal we would still have needed an extension, although it probably would have been easier to sell.
Of the 505 Statutory Instruments laid before parliament, only 382 have actually completed their passage up to yesterday (HERE). We don't know how many more might be needed and this doesn't even include primary legislation either, including the EU (Withdrawal) Act itself. There was never the slightest chance we would be ready yesterday.
Now, let me make another forecast, we won't leave on April 12th either. A long delay is the most likely outcome and we will be completely in the hands of the EU. It would not surprise me if they insisted on another referendum, It should be blindingly obvious to both leave and remain sides that it's the only safe way out.
Division
Sad to say there is division everywhere in the nation and between nations in the United Kingdom. We have opened a Pandora's box that will not be closed again for decades.
Andrew Vine, writing in The Yorkshire Post (HERE) says divisions must be healed to save Britain from extremists but sadly I don't see anybody who is capable of doing it or even a way it might be done. The leave means leave rally yesterday was mixed in with another protest in support of Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, aka Tommy Robinson. This should tell you all you need to know. Cameron once described UKIP as "a bunch of fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists" and I think this applies to many on the pro-Brexit right.
