On June 24th 2016, if anyone had suggested that after nearly three years we would be 10 days away from leaving the EU without any agreement whatsoever, I would have been even more shocked and worried than I was. How appropriate that yesterday was April Fool's day. MPs failed yet again to vote for anything positive with no majority for any of the four amendments tabled in parliament last night. Nick Boles, the sponsor of the Common Market 2.0 option, publicly resigned the party whip in the Commons almost immediately after the results were announced. Talk about turmoil.
The results were as follows:
C - Customs Union Ayes 273 - 276 Noes
D - Common Market 2.0 261 - 282
E - Confirmatory Vote 280 - 292
F - Revoke Article 50 191 - 291
It's clear that MPs are just not in the mood to compromise. The anti-Brexit TIG MP Anna Soubry, and others I presume, abstained on the CU (C) and CM 2.0 (D) although it would have given them a very softish Brexit. Mark Francois and the ERG voted against all of them because they wouldn't give us a hard Brexit. Between the rival factions there is absolutely no movement towards each other.
Nigel Adams, our local MP, voted against all four amendments (HERE). Last week he voted against six of the eight amendments (HERE). He supported the so-called Malthouse compromise, seeking a preferential trade deal with the EU and on leaving without a deal, he abstained. I don't think the government whipped their MPs but as a minister he was perhaps obliged to vote the way he did.
The House will try again on Wednesday but in the unlikely event one of the options gets a small majority I don't believe it would provide a firm foundation for a cross party agreement.
What we are seeing now, after the twelfth hour and more, is something that should have been done in late 2016 or early 2017, well before triggering Article 50. It would have shown the public as well as parliamentarians just how difficult and divisive Brexit is.
The House will try again on Wednesday but in the unlikely event one of the options gets a small majority I don't believe it would provide a firm foundation for a cross party agreement.
What we are seeing now, after the twelfth hour and more, is something that should have been done in late 2016 or early 2017, well before triggering Article 50. It would have shown the public as well as parliamentarians just how difficult and divisive Brexit is.
A three hour political cabinet is to be held later this morning to discuss the crisis before the normal two hour cabinet after lunch. Paradoxically, the PM is in a powerful position. The party cannot get rid of her by means of another leadership challenge before December, although she might choose to step down herself although I don't believe she will. But she now has to confront some very big, very urgent decisions. It would be a big surprise to me if there were not resignations from one side or the other. Brexiteers are said to be pushing for us to just get out on April 12th while remainers are gearing up to resist.
I cannot see a way out that does not include going back to the people. A general election is out of the question in my opinion (as I posted HERE). And to further reinforce my opinion, Professor John Curtice writes in The Telegraph (HERE) that polling at the moment indicates an election would only deliver another hung parliament with the Tories losing a further 14 seats and being down to 300. Labour would gain a 18 seats to bring them to 263. Labour might then join a coalition with the SNP and be able to form a government.
No, I think for all the talk of an election, it will not happen. It is not a way out of the impasse and would only deliver another impasse. The ONLY safe way for public opinion to be decisively tested is by a confirmatory vote.
A no deal outcome is still unthinkable in my opinion - no government could survive the economic backlash of a no deal Brexit - so the PM will need either to get her deal ratified or ask the EU for a long delay and take part in the European elections. No prime minister will voluntarily allow us to exit the EU without an agreement. Even Boris Johnson, if he were ever to become PM, would face exactly the same choice. At best it's a massive gamble with the lives and livelihoods of millions.
Equally, I am 100% certain, that even if she brought her deal back to parliament she would lose again. The DUP won't support it - ever - and the ERG hardliners can see the no deal prize they want so close they can almost touch it. I don't think they will vote for her deal either.
The urgent issue for this morning's political cabinet then will be how to delay Brexit. There is no guarantee the EU will grant a long delay without a realistic plan and at the moment there is no such thing and none in sight in the next few days. Even if there was some sketchy outline of a plan, the idea we are going to knife and fork something reasonably stable together in the next week is for the birds.
In those circumstances revoking Article 50 may be the only way of avoiding a no deal Brexit.
Whatever happens there will be fireworks - starting today.
Whatever happens there will be fireworks - starting today.
