Wednesday 3 April 2019

PRIME MINISTER FINALLY STARTS TO BEND

No fireworks yesterday, but after the longest cabinet meeting in history the PM came out and effectively lit the blue touch paper. The display should be going nicely by the weekend. When you have to turn to your sworn enemy for help you have to admit you're in deep trouble. And when that person happens to be Jeremy Corbyn, a man she has demonised as unfit to lead the nation, it's even worse. No big resignations as yet but don't worry, it won't be long. 

Her entire statement is HERE.  The prime minister has bent at last. It has taken a long time but she has finally come to realise what everybody knew back in 2017: namely that she could not deliver Brexit with the Tory party alone. 

She has finally and with gritted teeth agreed to work with the leader of the opposition to find a joint solution to Brexit that they can both put to the House of Commons next week so she can go to Brussels with an agreed solution next week and ask for a delay to the 22nd of May. It might even have worked - in 2016.

I am not even sure the EU will now accept May 22nd anyway. The offer of that date lapsed last Friday night. It was conditional on her deal being passed and it wasn't, so the delay to May 22nd may not even be available. If not, we had until April 12th to present a plan for a longer delay and take part in Euro elections. The PM is still trying to cherry pick. Typically she wants something not on offer.

She and Corbyn now have a few days at most to come up with a compromise policy that will get through the House. Personally, I don't think there is enough time, goodwill or desire for compromise between them to get it done. It will then be a series of indicative votes again, which has already produced only more stalemate. I am not optimistic.

All this is four days after the two year Article 50 period ran out.  She ran the clock down and it beat her.

One of the most important facets of leadership is knowing when you are not going to win and to sue for a lesser solution. For Theresa May this moment should have come at the beginning of December last year. Putting off the first meaningful vote only delayed matters. What happened today could have been started before Christmas.

How Corbyn will react? He needs to tread carefully. What the PM is doing is tantamount to somebody just about to be found guilty of criminal damage to the nation, generously offering to share the sentence with an innocent bystander. I assume he is being well advised. If he's not careful he might find Mrs May and the Conservative party getting out from underneath the disaster while he is left bearing responsibility. It would be a travesty if any shred of blame went anywhere other than the Tories.

A group of cross-party MPs led by Sir Oliver Letwin and Yvette Cooper, are working today to rush through a bill that would force her to ask for a delay (HERE) and avoid crashing out with no deal. However, she seemed to specifically rule this out in her statement when she said:

"I know there are some who are so fed up with delay and endless arguments that they would like to leave with no deal next week. I've always been clear that we could make a success of no deal in the long term.

"But leaving with a deal is the best solution. So we will need a further extension of Article 50, one that is as short as possible and which ends when we pass a deal".

The 'some' she spoke of, of course included herself when she used to tell everyone who would listen, "No deal is better than a bad deal". This has now become "a deal is the best solution" and this no matter how bad the deal is.

And this final comment must have raised a hollow smile throughout the nation:

"This is a decisive moment in the story of these islands and it requires national unity to deliver the national interest."

The woman who has put narrow party interests first at every stage is now calling on the opposition to help her unify parliament and the country. It may all be too late.

I am reminded of a poem by Matthew Arnold called The last word:

Creep into thy narrow bed,
Creep, and let no more be said!
Vain thy onset! All stands fast.
Thou thyself must break at last.

Let the long contention cease!
Geese are swans, and swans are geese.
Let them have it how they will!
Thou art tired: best be still.

Her action will certainly enrage the ERG and the hard Brexiteers. BoJo reacted (HERE) by saying her plan will 'hand power to Brussels'.  He says:

"As it is, we now face the ridiculous possibility of being forced to contest the European elections more than three years after leaving the EU and having to agree to exit terms that in no way resemble what the people were promised when they voted to leave."

At last BoJo seems to have latched onto the problem. I think this is exactly what remainers said during the campaign. That what was promised could never be delivered.

Finally, can I bring you a selection of deliciously hysterical stories from the pages of today's Telegraph. 

Owen Paterson: There is a clear route for Theresa May to unite the Tories: deliver Brexit without a deal.

Annabel Fenwick Elliot: I voted to stay in the EU but the arrogance and snobbery of Remainers has changed my mind

Nikki Da Costa: Yvette Cooper and the Remainers may have left it too late to seize control of Brexit

Philip Johnston: A cross-party process might have worked three years ago, but now it risks blowing the Tories to pieces

Editorial: How seven hours of rows and recrimination at Cabinet produced a surprising shift towards a soft Brexit

And what about this one. The nation can be thrown under the red no-deal bus but the Tories are united. Hooray!

Stewart Jackson: Strip out the tiny band of Remainer wreckers and the Tories are not split over Brexit

Liam Halligan: Nick Boles is wrong, Brexiteers have compromised enormously on leaving the EU – why should they do so again?

Editorial: The longest Cabinet meeting of modern times has utterly failed to end the Brexit uncertainty

Peter Foster: Why Britain shouldn't assume the EU will give it a long Brexit extension

Foster says:

"But these Westminster assumptions [that a long delay could be forced on us] overlook two important points: firstly, any extension to Article 50 needs to be agreed by all the other 27 EU member states, and secondly attitudes on the other side of the Channel are rapidly hardening against granting a long extension".

So, on that final point, if nothing is agreed in parliament and both the House and the PM have ruled out no deal, it may even be that at the end the ONLY solution is to revoke Article 50. Imagine that!