You get the impression with Brexit that absolutely massive forces are slowly building up, a bit like those preceding an earthquake. The stresses are not deep underground but all out in open, on the surface and perfectly visible, yet we're helpless to control them. Last night in parliament an attempt to seize control of the agenda next Monday resulted in a tie 310-310 with the speaker then casting his vote for the government and blocking it. This means no more MP led indicative voting - for the moment.
We then had to wait until 11:30 pm before the Cooper/Letwin Bill, creating a law to force the government to ask for a delay if a no deal outcome looks likely, passed it's third reading on its one day journey through the House of Commons. This is light-speed legislation and it will now go to The Lords. It seems likely to receive Royal assent and become law in the next few days.
The European Union Withdrawal (No 5) Bill will legally rule out leaving the bloc without a deal and forces the Prime Minister to seek further Article 50 extension although it doesn't specify the length of the extension, MPs will get to approve whatever Mrs May agrees.
The Bill had a cliff edge passage (HERE), going through by a single vote at 7:00 pm on first reading (313-312), by 5 votes at second reading (315-310) and on the third and final reading by another single vote margin (313-312).
But bizarrely, in between the readings, various wrecking amendments were defeated by colossal margins. Bill Cash tried an amendment to limit the scope of the Cooper/Letwin to just the length of the delay and lost by a humiliating 509 - 105. An earlier one to avoid limiting the government's action on seeking a delay was lost by 400 - 222 and another limiting the delay to May 22nd and no further was lost by 488 - 123.
Talks between Corbyn and May went ahead but while there were placatory murmurings from the Labour side, there has been no breakthrough and nobody expects one - ever. The stakes are huge and existential for the two main parties.
Factions on both sides are standing behind their leaders like awsome medieval armies, steam rising from the assembled masses in the early morning light as they prepare for the final battle, lances, swords and knobkerries at the ready.
If May accepts a customs union she and her party are finished. The Conservative party is as close to splitting as I have ever known and if Corbyn doesn't get a customs union and a confirmatory vote, he and Labour are finished. Neither May or Corbyn are risk takers to that extent and at the very best, I expect a series of indicative votes will again be tabled next week by the government to see if a consensus is to be found. I am not even sure Labour will sign up to abide by the result - assuming there is one.
Yet it seems a customs union is just about the minimum concession either side will make. The Attorney General, a hero of the Brexiteers a few weeks ago, has said (HERE) while a customs union was "not desirable" if that was the only way of leaving the EU, he would take it. His career in the party ended at that moment. And amazingly, for what I have always supposed to be a secular government, Cox say leaving the EU is now "an article of faith". Forget the problems, logic, rational thinking, reality or anything temporal, it's all a matter of faith.
The PM is going to need a serious and credible plan next week if she is going to persuade the EU to offer us a long delay and the truth is she does not have one.
Sentiment in Brussels is hardening and there is no guarantee we will get a delay agreed unanimously.
All of which brings us closer to a People's Vote in my opinion. How else is the parliamentary log jam to be broken? The EU may well insist on it before granting a delay.
I stand by my long-held belief that a no deal Brexit is simply out of the question under ANY circumstances, regardless of Yvette Cooper's EU Withdrawal (No 5) Bill. Despite threatening it for two years Mrs May is not ready to go down in history as the shortest lived and most destructive PM in our history. It is not a title that would sit well in your biography is it?
So, absent a delay being agreed with the EU, the only other option is to revoke Article 50. This might have been thought of as coming out of left-field but don't discount it.
Finally, I note Nigel Adams our MP resigned yesterday from the Wales Office, a subject I'll post about later.
