Johnson's statement to the House yesterday came across as part newspaper column, written during a serious bender, and part parallel universe. Spending and policy commitments were tossed out like confetti and those bright sunlit uplands picked out in ever more vivid colours. I had to check I was still in the UK. Politicians are often accused of making promises that they fail to keep, but with Boris it doesn't really matter, nobody believes a word he says. Even his own benches were laughing at the sheer ludicrousness of it all.
The Irish writer Fintan O'Toole caught the spirit of it in comments about his speech in Downing Street the day before:
".....the one thing that can be said in Johnson’s defence is that he is not a conman. Yes, of course, he speaks fluent falsehood as his native language. But he deceives no one. Everybody knows."
Yes, indeed everybody does know. It was the speech of a practised, upper class, Old Etonian liar, unencumbered by reality or shame or conscience. He was free to roam over every possible policy area. The speech contained a lot of high flown rhetoric and endless glittering always-just-out-of-reach goodies to layout before a credulous public. It was superficially very good and no doubt many will be swayed - but every pledge will come back to haunt him.
He promised the 'beginning of a new golden age for our United Kingdom', no less. When I think about it I'm surprised the speech didn't promise even more, how about limitless clean energy, an anti-gravity machine and a cure for aging as well. Why not? He knows he won't be in Downing Street very long anyway, it's not much of a risk.
In any case, the beauty of living in a parallel universe as Johnson does, is that even when his policies descend into abject failure he either won't accept it or will claim failure as success. He will misremember, misquote or misrepresent it all when questioned later. This is when he doesn't just deny he ever said it. I doubt he will remember today a single thing that he promised yesterday. Rules don't apply to him, see?
His two main policies are firstly to throw the economy over a cliff edge, 'do or die' while at the same time spending eye watering sums of money (he had the brass neck to criticise Jeremy Corbyn!) and to hope against hope the EU give in to his demands. That's about it.
Afterwards he spoke to Jean Claude Juncker. Juncker's spokeswoman tweeted later:
— Mina Andreeva (@Mina_Andreeva) July 25, 2019
Juncker told Johnson what the EU have been saying since December last year, the WA will not be reopened.
There is speculation this morning that Johnson issued some sort of 'ultimatum' to the EU when he seemed to say he would only negotiate with Brussels on the basis that the backstop was dropped. I don't see this. His actual words were:
"The evidence is that other arrangements are perfectly possible, and are also perfectly compatible with the Belfast or Good Friday agreement, to which we are, of course, steadfastly committed. I, my team, and my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union are ready to meet and talk on this basis to the European Commission, or other EU colleagues, whenever and wherever they are ready to do so".
It seems he was suggesting they talk about arrangements as an 'alternative' to the backstop which I think the Commission would be happy to do. His problem is coming up with the 'evidence'.
Peter Foster, The Telegraph's Europe editor sets out out a possible scenario for the next 100 days in a Twitter thread (HERE). He expects Johnson to "ramp up the 'no deal' preparations in the hope that the EU cracks," something that he does not expect to happen. Brussels in turn will watch and wait, do nothing and let the "pressure build back on Mr Johnson".
Peter Foster, The Telegraph's Europe editor sets out out a possible scenario for the next 100 days in a Twitter thread (HERE). He expects Johnson to "ramp up the 'no deal' preparations in the hope that the EU cracks," something that he does not expect to happen. Brussels in turn will watch and wait, do nothing and let the "pressure build back on Mr Johnson".
"Who, when the EU doesn't crack, will in turn ramp up his own 'no deal' rhetoric.......as the reality of a 'no deal' starts to pile up on his desk. Because, as @instituteforgov sets out here, 'no deal' prep[aration]s are a total mess".
At which point, as Johnson goes into full 'no deal' mode, he expects Parliament to step in to prevent it happening and privately Johnson's Team will be happy to be saved from 'no deal', while outwardly outraged that MPs are blocking the 'will of the people'. Neat, eh?
This is when a general election will be called and the reason that the campaign guru Dominic Cummings is in Downing Street testing social media messaging. Foster thinks he will then fight a dirty "TELL THEM AGAIN" election where the 'will of the people' slogan will figure prominently. Note also Linton Crosby who is said to have masterminded BoJo's Mayoral election victories as well as the Tories 2015 election success is also on board.
I see others with access to EU diplomats also think the EU expect an early election so don't be surprised if one is called immediately parliament returns in September.
As an aside, Foster notes that Michael Gove, fresh from DEFRA is really quite unenthusiastic on no-deal preparations after having to grapple with the reality of the potentially catastrophic impact on British agriculture, something he thinks Johnson will also have to confront on trade and NI. Gove should worry he is being set up to carry the can when no-deal planning falls well short and the horrific consequences are all around us. BoJo can certainly carry a grudge and would be happy to see his old nemesis with a knife in his back.
One small vignette from yesterday illustrates for me the insane paradox of Brexit. Johnson was asked at one point about workers rights not being diminished after we leave the EU, to which he responded that they would 'enhance workers’ rights in this country'. The MP Peter Kyle later picked him up on it:
Peter Kyle (Hove) (Lab)
The Prime Minister
Which workers’ rights does the Prime Minister want to enhance that we are currently prohibited from doing by the EU?
The Prime Minister
That will be a matter for this House, and the hon. Gentleman should welcome that opportunity. If he is now saying that he does not wish to do anything to improve the rights of workers in this country, or that the entire corpus of EU law must remain whole, inviolate and untouched, that is why the people of this country are fed up with remaining in the EU—they want legislation for the advantage of the people of this country.
I don't think Johnson even understood the thrust of the question. We can already 'enhance' workers rights NOW. We don't have to go through years of legal, commercial and constitutional convulsions to do it.
We are leaving the EU to avoid kipper packaging rules that they don't impose and enhance workers' rights which they don't prevent. It is total madness.
