The Tory party surely cannot survive Boris becoming leader and Brexit. It might - just - come through one or the other seriously damaged if still intact, but not both. The pro and anti European factions will soon go their separate ways after a rancorous separation caused by the man who didn't have any strong conviction either way - on Europe or anything else. It is all down to his own naked ambition.
Yesterday saw the sacking of Tobias Ellwood, the highly respected junior defence minister, and the resignation of Lord Nicholas Bourne, minister at The Welsh Office. Both caused by Johnson's madcap insistence on setting Britain on a collision course with the EU, as Irish deputy PM, Simon Coveney has said. He has upset Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives at Holyrood when he sacked David Mundell as Scottish Secretary after ignoring her advice to keep him in post.
The
back benches are now groaning under the weight of seething opponents from his own party who
are profoundly concerned about a no deal Brexit. Can they be relied upon to support
him? I'm quite sure they cannot. Remember he is likely to have a majority of one very soon.
Ian Blackford, the SNP leader in Westminster, has taken to calling him the last prime minister of the United Kingdom and I fear he may be right.
Parliament will have a very strange look when it returns in September. Both back benches will look like serious governments in waiting, while the government and it's opposition shadow look like anonymous back benchers, placemen and voting fodder. Johnson's cabinet is stuffed mainly with sycophants and third-rate politicians. Dissenting voices of moderation have been all but
silenced as the incompetent imbecile pursues the most damaging and
divisive policy this country has ever experienced.
There has been talk of a general election, as I posted yesterday, and indeed it's difficult to see any way out of the present parliamentary cul-de-sac without one. But one wonders if this would not be the final straw for many moderate Tories. Some MPs know they face deselection anyway so could consider jumping ship as the party makes another starboard shift towards Farage and morphs into The Brexit Party. Johnson himself has ruled out an election which probably means we'll have one very soon.
If he is indeed to call an election he will almost certainly need an extension to the October 31st deadline. The Institute for Government has published an article about what has to happen if an election is called. The civil
service goes into purdah and this would seriously impact no deal
planning. The guidance says that decisions "on which a new government might
be expected to want the opportunity to take a different view from the
present Government should be postponed until after the election".
This is apart from taking another 25 days out of the already impossibly short time frame and don't forget two thirds of MPs (actually two thirds of seats) have to vote for it and if they think it's just a ploy to ensure we leave without a deal, they may not agree.
Johnson's largess with public money seems to know no limits. Every day brings some new pledge. He wants an extra 20,000 police at £1.2 billion, £4.6 billion for education, £2 billion fund for Labour voting towns and £billions more to support agriculture and industry. Today it's a high speed rail link for the north. Pretty soon we'll be talking serious money. And this is without taking into account the £23.8 billion he's already promised in tax cuts. Sajid Javid must be ready to sell and he's only been at The Treasury for two days!
Johnson spoke to Trump yesterday about a future trade deal, all carefully designed to put pressure on the EU.
He is taking more than one leaf out of the Orange Baboon's playbook, not least on spending. Trump came in promising to Make America Great Again and his supporters think he's doing a pretty good job, certainly on the economy. But take a look at this article about what the president is doing to the national debt:
"During the 2016 presidential campaign, Republican candidate Donald Trump promised he would eliminate the nation’s debt in eight years. Instead, his budgets would add $9.1 trillion during that time. It would increase the U.S. debt to $29 trillion according to Trump's budget estimates".
I could improve anybody's life by borrowing lots of money on their account without them knowing.
Is this what Johnson intends to do? I wouldn't rule it out. Most ordinary people cannot comprehend these numbers at all and don't realise government borrowing is just deferred taxation.
Dominic Grieve called Johnson a Charlatan the other day saying, "Those of us who have worked alongside him and had a chance
of watching him can see for ourselves his modus operandi and his
capacity both for deception and self-deception and those are the two
ingredients of charlatanism."
So, I certainly wouldn't put anything past him.
I note there is a rising chorus of voices this week against his no-deal policy with the motor industry, the CBI and the BCC all calling on him to avoid a no deal Brexit. The NFU have also warned against it. This week the Welsh First minister, in a phone call with Johnson is said to have made it “emphatically clear” that a no-deal scenario would be catastrophic for the Welsh agricultural sector.
Brexit will be a
disaster, even if we get a deal. Johnson and his band of Brexiteers seem to believe it's
just a matter of 'getting it over the line'. In fact it's the first step
along a longer, harder and rockier road where we'll be arguing over trade for years
and years. No deal would certainly be catastrophic and not just for Welsh sheep farmers.
So whichever
way it goes he is pursuing a policy that will make us poorer while
trying to spend money we haven't got and will have to borrow, to make himself
popular. If his premiership lasts any length of time the public finances
will probably be in a mess and the Conservative and Unionist party will have lost it's
reputation both for conservatism and unionism.
How ironic would that be?
