If you wanted hard evidence of the sheer insanity of Brexit brought together in a single document look no further than the government's No Deal Readiness Report published yesterday, all 159 pages. Gove launched it with a Commons statement on Tuesday. It's the sort of exercise one might just about risk attempting if you had a 23 year lead time instead of 23 days. I bet no MP had actually read it in any detail anyway before parliament was prorogued and perhaps it was just as well. If they had they should be very worried indeed.
Not only is the document itself complex but it has dozens and dozens of hypertext links to other government websites and documents - many of which I assume contain yet more links. There must be literally thousands of pages of information with details of how things will change for the UK at one second past 11:00 pm on Thursday October 31st - assuming there is no deal of course. A big assumption when you read the details.
To coincide with its publication, Prospect magazine carried a neat article by David Anderson about the late Lord Cockfield (he died in 2007) who is often called the Father of the Single Market. Arthur Cockfield was appointed to the European Commission by Margaret Thatcher and Anderson worked with him in Brussels during the run up to the creation of the single market. It's a short article but well worth five minutes. The subheading is this:
"The UK helped to deliver the greatest bonfire of red tape in human history. But it is now contemplating the erection of countless new barriers, and in doing so, abandoning its proud record from decades past"
In 1985, Anderson recounts, a White paper prepared by Cockfield listed "more than 300 barriers to the free movement of persons, goods, services and capital, and persuaded the member states to commit to removing all of them by the end of 1992"
Gove yesterday essentially set out how, like a phoenix, we will reintroduce them all - PLUS TARIFFS - not over seven years but in a split second at the end of THIS MONTH, and to meet a wholly arbitrary date which could be slipped back a few months quite easily.
This is just not realistic or credible. Do me a favour.
This is just not realistic or credible. Do me a favour.
At the moment (as I understand it) a driver can collect a load of whatever from Birmingham and deliver it to Bratislava, Berlin or Biarritz with just a delivery note. Now the Readiness Report explains (page 20):
Hauliers:
Hauliers should refer to GOV.UK for a comprehensive checklist of documents that haulage drivers must carry to pass through customs if we leave without a deal. It is the responsibility of the trader to make customs declarations and provide the relevant documentation relating to goods being carried. The driver will need to carry different documentation depending on whether they are declaring the import and export of goods, or moving an empty vehicle or trailer.
The checklist link (I didn't look at all the links just this one - I'm not sure I've got enough time left on earth to do them all) takes you to a web page which explains the various procedures and documents that you will need after we have been 'unshackled' from EU red tape. There is also a helpful booklet (23 pages) available in 11 languages - including Welsh for some reason. There are more acronyms than you can shake a stick at.
For example, page 14 says:
For example, page 14 says:
Moving goods into the EU under the CTC (Common Transit Convention)
If the trader arranges for the goods to move under the CTC the driver must either:
1. Be given a Transit Accompanying Document (TAD) from the trader and be informed by the trader that the movement has been released to the Transit procedure and that they can proceed to the place of exit from the UK. Or:
2. Be given a Local Reference Number (LRN) or a TAD that hasn’t been released to the transit procedure and told to present the goods and the LRN or TAD to the UK Border Force at a nominated UK Office of Departure. The goods will then be released to the procedure and a TAD will be provided to the driver.
The exporter/agent will be responsible for updating the haulier and driver on the status of the TAD.
Moving goods into the EU
Under ATA Convention (Admission Temporaire/Temporary Admission)
ATA carnets are international customs documents that are used for the temporary export or import of goods. If the trader arranges for the goods to move under the ATA Convention the driver must:
- obtain the ATA Carnet document from the trader
- take the goods and the ATA Carnet to the UK Border Force at a UK Office of Departure as instructed by the trader, their agent or the logistics company controlling the movement
Under the TIR Convention
If the trader arranges for the goods to move under the TIR Convention, the vehicle moving the goods must hold an Approval Certificate of a road vehicle for the transport of Goods under Customs Seal.
The haulier must:
- give the driver the TIR Carnet
- ensure that arrangements have been made to declare the movement to the EU Transit system (NCTS) and have the reference numbers needed to present the goods to the EU Customs authorities
- instruct the driver to take and present the goods and the TIR Carnet to the UK Border Force at an UK Office of Departure
I also noticed there are different rules for France, Holland and Ireland.
The whole no deal readiness report goes on at length, not just on transport - I just picked that as an example - but about labelling, geographic indicators, gas and electricity interconnectors, agricultural support, EU funds and just about every topic you can think of.
If anyone thinks this will all work seamlessly on day one they really ought to seek treatment.
It is a recipe for disaster.
Leo Varadkar should be briefed on it before going into the meeting today with Boris Johnson. If I were him I would be very confident. Remember in a no deal scenario companies in the EU who export stuff around the world will simply switch from treating the UK as a member state to treating us as a third country. There will be some disruption but nothing like that which is likely to ensue over here when the no deal switch is thrown on October 31st.
Ireland goes into the last ditch negotiations with the strongest hand they have ever had against a charlatan relying on bluff alone. If the Taoiseach does not use the massive advantage he has today Ireland will never forgive him.
Every exporter and every importer in the UK will need to be prepared. But we know the majority have done nothing at all.
I also know from my own career that people in Britain (it's unique to us) do not read lengthy documents. If whatever message you want to send or information you need to provide can't fit on a single Facebook post, be read and vaguely understood in a couple of seconds, you can forget it.
My guess is that 90% + of the companies that need to be ready - hauliers, forwarding agents, customs officers, and the traders themselves - will not have read anything at all or done any real planning. The chances of it happening with just a bit of disruption are nil.
Chaos is likely to begin within days.
This is why a no deal Brexit will never happen whatever Johnson says or is forced to do by parliament.
The whole no deal readiness report goes on at length, not just on transport - I just picked that as an example - but about labelling, geographic indicators, gas and electricity interconnectors, agricultural support, EU funds and just about every topic you can think of.
If anyone thinks this will all work seamlessly on day one they really ought to seek treatment.
It is a recipe for disaster.
Leo Varadkar should be briefed on it before going into the meeting today with Boris Johnson. If I were him I would be very confident. Remember in a no deal scenario companies in the EU who export stuff around the world will simply switch from treating the UK as a member state to treating us as a third country. There will be some disruption but nothing like that which is likely to ensue over here when the no deal switch is thrown on October 31st.
Ireland goes into the last ditch negotiations with the strongest hand they have ever had against a charlatan relying on bluff alone. If the Taoiseach does not use the massive advantage he has today Ireland will never forgive him.
Every exporter and every importer in the UK will need to be prepared. But we know the majority have done nothing at all.
I also know from my own career that people in Britain (it's unique to us) do not read lengthy documents. If whatever message you want to send or information you need to provide can't fit on a single Facebook post, be read and vaguely understood in a couple of seconds, you can forget it.
My guess is that 90% + of the companies that need to be ready - hauliers, forwarding agents, customs officers, and the traders themselves - will not have read anything at all or done any real planning. The chances of it happening with just a bit of disruption are nil.
Chaos is likely to begin within days.
This is why a no deal Brexit will never happen whatever Johnson says or is forced to do by parliament.
