Johnson's meeting with Varadkar yesterday sparked off massive speculation that there had been some kind of breakthrough amidst a new spirit of optimism. The BBC report the meeting as 'promising' with Barclay off to meet Barnier again this morning. Unfortunately, nobody outside the two groups which met in The Wirral knows what has happened. Irreconcilable differences at the start of the week seem to have evaporated but we don't know why. There is to say the least some surprise in Brussels.
What everyone is anxious to know is who blinked. Assuming there has been any blinking done at all.
What was noticeable last night was that all the press briefings came from Varadkar who appeared to be relaxed, smiling and very happy. Of Johnson, not a peep. I imagine in DUP circles there will be deep suspicion. If Ireland has cause to be happy, unionists will be angered by it. Some websites like TUV are already seeing a sell out.
My own feeling is that Johnson has made the concessions, mainly because he has made all the concessions so far and time is running out to try and meet his own recklessly self imposed deadline of October 31st. The pressure is on him to get a deal - any deal. As I have often pointed out all the no deal talk was bluster and whatever happens in the next 2-3 weeks will not change that. Of course Varadkar needs a deal too, but he has the 26 countries of our largest trading partner behind him.
The next question is what concessions has he made on the two contentious issues of the customs union and the Stormont lock? We may find out later today after the Barnier/Barclay meeting when the EU's chief negotiator is due to brief the ambassadors of the EU27. All the leaks start from there.
Any softening of Johnson's position is likely to lead to a DUP backlash and a loss of support from some of the Spartans - as the ERG are now known.
The Irish Times report that the only option the EU might accept is a customs border down the Irish sea along with the regulatory border. NI would then follow EU tariffs. This would avoid checks on the island of Ireland. The UK could run a different tariff regime and, where our tariffs were lower, if those goods find there way to NI, the EU tariff is paid but businesses operating in the north could reclaim the difference.
This sounds not all that different to the backstop to me.
On the question of Stormont's approval, Julian Smith, the Northern Ireland Secretary, has said the idea of the DUP having a veto over NI's effective membership of the SM and the CU is not possible. Both communities must agree which means Sinn Fein would have a veto over the whole thing too. This would be anathema to the DUP.
On the question of Stormont's approval, Julian Smith, the Northern Ireland Secretary, has said the idea of the DUP having a veto over NI's effective membership of the SM and the CU is not possible. Both communities must agree which means Sinn Fein would have a veto over the whole thing too. This would be anathema to the DUP.
It all seems very messy with lots of risks to the single market and unfair competition for Irish businesses facing northern competitors who get a rebate. Bear in mind also that the proposals submitted last week by Johnson removed all of Mrs May's commitments to a level playing field. NI companies would have a major advantage over their southern counterparts and rebate on some goods as well. Hard to see that flying in the Commission.
Sky News reported the UK had offered a 'pared down' free trade agreement whatever that is. This was always the destination anyway and the backstop was the insurance policy in case an agreement couldn't be reached. Difficult to see that one getting past Barnier.
Varadkar also seemed to indicate a deal would be possible by October 31st which I assume means something not too far removed from the existing WA.
There are others who simply don't trust Johnson and Cummings. Robert Peston (and he's not alone) think it may all be a ruse to avoid parliament triggering the Benn Act. In other words, keep everyone on the garden path until it's too late to prevent a no deal Brexit.
Johnson's strained relationship with the truth will come back to haunt him I think.deal is a genuine possibility, even the ultras among Tory rebels will feel obliged to give Johnson and his negotiators the time and space to try and conclude that deal. In other words, Johnson's optimism and apparent readiness to adapt his offer may be real or may...— Robert Peston (@Peston) October 10, 2019
The DUP have more reason than most to be suspicious. They were always the most likely stakeholder to be thrown overboard - and so they probably have been.
This leaves the UK parliament. Johnson has no majority but it's probably fair to say most of the 21 rebel Tories would support a deal if he brings one that has the approval of the EU and Ireland. Some might demand a confirmatory vote as the price of that support of course and there seems a growing belief among MPs that a second referendum is the least worst route out of the mess.
Without the DUP and the Spartans, he will struggle to reach 300-310 votes. Some Labour rebels will support him but Johnson's lack of commitment to the level playing field shows he is likely to erode social, employment and environmental standards and this might lose him some opposition support.
However, we should prepare ourselves for the fact that against all the odds Johnson might get a deal and we will no longer be members of the EU at the end of this month. It's still a very long shot but it may no longer be totally out of the question.
If we do leave we need to begin to rethink our work and start the long campaign to get back where we all know we belong. Don't be downhearted.
