For good or ill, there will now be a general election on December 12th, Johnson's preferred date with all the party leaders throwing their weight behind it and parliament voting 438-20 in favour. It says something though when almost 200 MPs abstained. There is plenty of disquiet on both sides of the aisle, such is the uncertainty about the outcome. I will be helping Labour wherever I can to at least retain Mary Creagh in Wakefield and if possible, get rid of Andrea Jenkyns in Morley and Outwood (maj: 2,014).
I hope every remain voter who wants us to stay in the EU will vote tactically to stop the reckless idiot Johnson from getting a majority. I hope he loses his Uxbridge seat (maj: 5,034) too, although I have heard it rumoured that he will seek a safer seat somewhere. Watch out for that. If he doesn't move he may well be vulnerable.
For all the reasons I set out over the last couple of days it will not be an easy election for him to win an outright majority in the House.
Professor John Curtice, in an interview with LBC says:
"I think the safest prediction is that we will have a record number of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs in this parliament.
"The SNP look set to win the vast majority of seats in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats given their position in the polls should do extremely well. We expect Caroline Lucas and the Green Party to hang on to her seat.
"We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties".
He says this matters for two reasons. Firstly, with over 100 seats spoken for it's very hard for either the Tories or Labour to win an overall majority. Secondly, this election is asymmetrical because he says Johnson HAS to win outright because he has no friends in the House. The man who wants to build a bridge between Scotland and Ireland has forgotten to build any in the House of Commons. Nobody trusts him or agrees with his policies.
The other parties only need to deny him a majority. He needs to win, anything else will see him gone.
Over at CapX, Glen O'Hara is also doubtful, he says:
"Johnson has taken a huge gamble, asking people to vote in the cold, dark days of early December: he is the unpopular leader of an unpopular government: indeed, net scores of -18 and -67 are the worst on record for a new leader and government at this stage. After nearly a decade of public sector austerity and stagnant wages, Johnson is asking the people to give the Conservatives another go. He is asking for a lot."
He goes on:
"The Conservatives are faced with a three-pronged pincer movement that may see Leave cornered by the reinvigorated ranks of Remainers. They will almost certainly lose seats to the Scottish National Party in Scotland, and they are very likely indeed to lose wealthy, culturally liberal and very pro-Remain seats in the South of England to the resurgent Liberal Democrats. Let’s assume, very roughly but credibly, that they lose seven or eight of their Scottish MPs. And then another thirteen or so fall to the Liberal Democrats. That’s twenty – or a few more – losses before the Conservatives have even made a start."
These are formidable challenges as he himself admitted to a meeting of the 1922 committee last night. Is Johnson afflicted with the same Old Etonian hubris that caught Cameron out in 2016? I think he might well be.
Elsewhere, Michel Barnier has been giving an interview to several European newspapers, including The Guardian, where he warns about departing too far from EU regulations:
"Barnier said maintaining 'fair' competition, rather than 'wild' deregulation, was in the interests of the UK, and he warned that the EU-UK free-trade deal could be blocked by any one of three dozen national or regional parliaments. 'Don’t underestimate the difficulties of the process of ratification,' he said, referring to the trade deal, but also other agreements the UK must negotiate in the coming years. 'If it is not ratified, we return to zero'."
It is a reminder of the difficulties ahead. The WA only had to be agreed by a qualified majority, a free trade deal needs unanimity and regional parliaments will be deciding our fate. Take back control?
Cue hollow laughter.
