It is indeed an odd day. In April we thought this would be the day we finally left the EU. Instead, Jeremy Corbyn is launching Labour's general election campaign, setting off a frantic six week period of inflated never-to-be-fulfilled promises, babble, arguments, lies and counter lies in which the political class engage in what looks like the break out of a mass brawl without the violence (we hope). The cacophony of electo-jabber will rise to a crescendo occurring precisely at 10:00 pm on December 12th when the BBC's straw poll is published. It will be a moment of truth because it's usually pretty accurate within a few seats.
At that moment we will know if Johnson's gamble has paid off and if we are likely to leave the EU at the end of January - or not.
If he loses, I think we will be watching Brexit finally begin to slip away.
This election is that important. It will be a referendum in all but name. If a majority of the British people genuinely want to leave the EU and are motivated enough to go out on a short, cold December day to vote for their belief then we will probably be out at the end of January or soon after. Alternatively, if remainers are more motivated to vote, and vote tactically to deny Johnson a majority we will surely start to see the atrophying of Brexit. The government will have spent four utterly exhausting years getting precisely nowhere. A People's Vote will be the only option.
I think in this election, if all the opinion polls of the last eighteen months or so are correct, it is a given that more people will vote for remain or second referendum parties than not. Unfortunately, our first past the post system, which was probably responsible for Brexit in the first place, could still throw up a perverse result.
But if we cannot shape this election, we probably will not be able to win a referendum.
For our part we will be working to ensure local Yorkshire remain backing MPs and candidates are given the maximum support possible. There is no lack of willing volunteers prepared to leaflet and canvass on their behalf. A small army of extraordinary men and women, from all political parties and none, will be pounding the streets to persuade and motivate supporters in marginal target seats to vote. Let us hope we make a difference.
Last night we had training on how to carry out door-to-door canvassing from the PV campaign. We may be able to put it to good use.
The entire Brexit saga has been an exercise in chaos. Two general elections and two Tory leadership contests have interrupted it to the bemusement of those on the other side of The Channel. I noticed the other day someone tweeted the result of a regular poll from Austria, which has seen a collapse of the far-right recently, showing a huge jump in support for the EU. I don't have the tweet anymore and I can't give the precise numbers unfortunately. Brexit has shown the folly of trusting the people with such a complex decision, especially when the result was a narrow win. Austrians and other EU countries have noted it. Nobody will be following our lead.
The Belfast Telegraph has a report quoting Boris Johnson (he of the do-or-die pledge) who not once but several times assured us we would be leaving at 11:00 pm tonight "no ifs, no buts". This is what he has said ahead of a visit to a school, hospital and police unit later today:
"Today should have been the day that Brexit was delivered and we finally left the EU. But despite the great new deal I agreed with the EU, Jeremy Corbyn refused to allow that to happen – insisting upon more dither, more delay and more uncertainty for families and business."
So, there was a "but" after all.
Now let's show him the "if". If we can 'win' this election we can stop Brexit.
