If anything has come out of the current round of frantic negotiations under Johnson's benighted stewardship it is that Britain has already achieved the status of vassaldom. The very fact we have conceded a regulatory and customs border down the Irish sea, a de facto partitioning of our own county, is testament to two important truths. One is that a no-deal Brexit is now effectively dead, our capitulation has proclaimed that from the rooftops. Secondly, by Brexit we have voluntarily transposed ourselves from full member to a client state of the EU.
Johnson has conceded everything and the EU nothing. He has gone back to the option he once described as a "constitutional abomination" and Mr May said no British prime minister "could ever accept". This is a stunning volte face. I am also grateful to Mr Ian Harris who posted this on Twitter. It will surely go down in the annals of betrayal:
He made an absolute commitment in July that "under no cirumstances, under no circumstances (repeated), whatever happens" would he allow a division down the Irish sea. Three months later it is his central policy. Who would trust him on anything? And yet amazingly they do.I'm old enough to remember when Boris Johnson resigned from Theresa May's cabinet over the idea that we might accept a border 'in the sea' between the UK and Northern Irelandpic.twitter.com/RGgGlXz0Wf— Ian Harris - #GetBorisDone (@biscuitsgod) October 16, 2019
I also want you to have a look at this tweet from David Henig of ECIPE, an independent think tank on trade matters, he is a well respected voice on trade matters, an expert if you'll pardon the expression:
Goods travelling between GB and NI which previously involved simple transport, will now be subject to the full panoply of EU regulatory and customs checks. That is declarations, inspections, certification, rules of origin and sundry other paperwork by the ream.I've made a quick assessment - goods going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland will have to go through processes designed for all EU external borders...— David Henig (@DavidHenigUK) October 16, 2019
I suspect the DUP have also made that assessment https://t.co/LVOh6OxIvn
Henig noted Sammy Wilson of the DUP asking Stephen Barclay about that yesterday afternoon in the Brexit Select Committee. DUP support is crucial but as far as I can see the deal will mean NI will operate under totally different rules and regulations to Great Britain. Hardly what Unionists have been arguing for these past three years.
Barclay dodged Wilson's question by the way, saying, "Obviously one has to have to have clarity on what those arrangements are before one can start to assess any impact assessments or what mitigations are required".
Wilson then asked if that 'clarity' would be available for super Saturday and was told: "The first order of business is to see if we can secure a deal with the EU. Once we have that clarity then clearly there will be an urgent need to bring that to the house and then get into those details".
It was obviously not convincing. Overnight the DUP issued a joint statement:
"As things stand, we could not support what is being suggested on customs and consent issues, and there is a lack of clarity on VAT,"
"We will continue to work with the Government to try and get a sensible deal that works for Northern Ireland and protects the economic and constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom."
This is being described as a major blow to Johnson and indeed it is. The ERG take their lead from the DUP and without unionist support the numbers in parliament are looking very difficult. The only comfort is the "As things stand" which leaves the door open for more concessions which the EU may or may not want to offer.
This again shows the vassaldom we have entered. We are not the sleeping giant awakened by Brexit that the Brexiteers like to think, more a shambling, helpless drunk being pushed around and argued over by a tiny group of politicians from Ulster and the bureaucrats in Brussels. How the mighty are fallen.
On Radio 4 this morning, Dominic Grieve seemed to think there won't be a legal text ready even for the weekend which means (a) no deal can be ratified at the EU summit today - a long shot anyway and (b) no meaningful vote on Saturday and (c) Johnson having to write the letter he said that he never would.
I would also hazard a guess that the legal text will throw up more objections both from the ERG and the DUP.
I am very hopeful of an excellent turnout on Saturday to put pressure on MPs to support a People's Vote. We are now at a crunch moment. The only way to close the matter is to put the deal back to the people in a confirmatory vote. Any other outcome is a recipe for more division, more national humiliation, more negotiations. In other words more Brexit stretching into the future as far ahead as we can see.
Barclay dodged Wilson's question by the way, saying, "Obviously one has to have to have clarity on what those arrangements are before one can start to assess any impact assessments or what mitigations are required".
Wilson then asked if that 'clarity' would be available for super Saturday and was told: "The first order of business is to see if we can secure a deal with the EU. Once we have that clarity then clearly there will be an urgent need to bring that to the house and then get into those details".
It was obviously not convincing. Overnight the DUP issued a joint statement:
"As things stand, we could not support what is being suggested on customs and consent issues, and there is a lack of clarity on VAT,"
"We will continue to work with the Government to try and get a sensible deal that works for Northern Ireland and protects the economic and constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom."
This is being described as a major blow to Johnson and indeed it is. The ERG take their lead from the DUP and without unionist support the numbers in parliament are looking very difficult. The only comfort is the "As things stand" which leaves the door open for more concessions which the EU may or may not want to offer.
This again shows the vassaldom we have entered. We are not the sleeping giant awakened by Brexit that the Brexiteers like to think, more a shambling, helpless drunk being pushed around and argued over by a tiny group of politicians from Ulster and the bureaucrats in Brussels. How the mighty are fallen.
On Radio 4 this morning, Dominic Grieve seemed to think there won't be a legal text ready even for the weekend which means (a) no deal can be ratified at the EU summit today - a long shot anyway and (b) no meaningful vote on Saturday and (c) Johnson having to write the letter he said that he never would.
I would also hazard a guess that the legal text will throw up more objections both from the ERG and the DUP.
I am very hopeful of an excellent turnout on Saturday to put pressure on MPs to support a People's Vote. We are now at a crunch moment. The only way to close the matter is to put the deal back to the people in a confirmatory vote. Any other outcome is a recipe for more division, more national humiliation, more negotiations. In other words more Brexit stretching into the future as far ahead as we can see.
