What a depressing day it was yesterday. I avoided watching the news as much as I could for fear of seeing a triumphant Johnson with that trademark smirk. He has essentially crossed most, if not all of his red lines, betrayed his DUP allies, pointed towards a simple free trade deal that is likely to cost £140 billion a year (6.7% of GDP) in lost output and trashed the rights of 66 million people. And looked as if he was enjoying it. Pass the sick bag.
I can see this from an EU perspective and something inside me is pleased for them. They did what was necessary for their own interests but kept their principles and defended a weaker member all the way. It will not have gone unnoticed in Scotland and Wales. Contrast that with Johnson's selling out of the DUP. The EU see a divided nation which has never really understood or valued European solidarity as much as it should and probably feels the bloc is better off without us.
When I first started to write this blog in March 2017 on the 'About' page I wrote:
"I believe Brexit is going to come. Indeed it must come. Nothing less will be able to convince those who voted to leave the EU that we were actually better off inside the largest, closest and richest trading bloc on earth. The economy must take a bit of damage. But we do need to begin now the long hard road to obtain a new referendum as soon as politically possible to take us back in. The annual increase in younger people joining the electorate and being far more pro-EU than older voters will bring about a balance quicker than we might think."
So, yesterday was not a complete shock although I confess to still feeling downbeat and depressed this morning. But the fight goes on.
It is now all down to us and 321 or more MP's in the House of Commons on Saturday.
If the march exceeds a million, as I truly hope it does, we might put enough pressure on some wavering MPs to back a confirmatory vote. It will be very tight. He needs at least 320 votes but has only 288 Tory MPs, not all of whom will vote for the deal although I suspect most will. One or two hardline ERG members like Owen Paterson and Mark Francois might not, they may abstain. Let's assume he can get 286 votes comfortably.
The 21 Tory rebels that he fired are not all independents now. Sam Gymah for example joined the LibDems and Rory Stewart is stepping down anyway. I can't see Guto Bebb or Antoinette Sandbach voting for it. Dominic Grieve certainly won't. Amber Rudd resigned from the party but I assume she will support it. If we assume he can count on perhaps 16-17 of these to vote with him (Oliver Letwin on Radio 4 this morning thought 17-18), he has around 302-303 votes. Charlie Elphicke MP for Dover is suspended from the party but will support the deal I'm sure. But this still means the government is probably 16 -17 votes short.
The DUP are definitely voting against it and are working hard to get some of the ERG to vote with them or abstain.
The DUP are definitely voting against it and are working hard to get some of the ERG to vote with them or abstain.
Johnson needs 17 Labour rebels to back him. Is that likely? Labour whips are saying the actual number is less than 10 but we have to be honest, perhaps it is possible. This article in The Economist gives me a bit of hope.
"Defying the whip to rescue a Tory prime minister when an election is looming is a challenge even for those Labour MPs keenest to get Brexit done."
Moreover, if Johnson does get his deal through he will probably get a boost in the polls making a general election victory and five more years of Conservative government far more likely. Would any Labour MPs support that? Amazingly, it seems some will if it means keeping their seats. Kate Hoey who is stepping down anyway, certainly will.
This British Election Study article should be required reading for Labour MPs. The data shows that "in Labour seats where there was a Leave majority in 2016, 60% of Labour voters voted to Remain compared to 76% in Remain seats. In other words while unsurprisingly there were more Labour leave voters in leave seats, on average there was still a substantial Remain majority. Even in those with a Leave vote of greater than 60%, a clear majority (57%) of Labour voters voted Remain in 2016".
In other words they are likely to lose more of their remain voters by supporting leave than the other way round.
If Johnson succeeds by one or two votes with the support of a tiny number of Labour MPs will the Labour movement ever forgive them?
Some MPs may have consituency associations who are seriously hard Brexiteers and they might be under a lot of pressure locally to get Brexit done. But if it all goes wrong and the economy turns down with jobs lost and employment rights eroded they will carry the blame?
This British Election Study article should be required reading for Labour MPs. The data shows that "in Labour seats where there was a Leave majority in 2016, 60% of Labour voters voted to Remain compared to 76% in Remain seats. In other words while unsurprisingly there were more Labour leave voters in leave seats, on average there was still a substantial Remain majority. Even in those with a Leave vote of greater than 60%, a clear majority (57%) of Labour voters voted Remain in 2016".
In other words they are likely to lose more of their remain voters by supporting leave than the other way round.
If Johnson succeeds by one or two votes with the support of a tiny number of Labour MPs will the Labour movement ever forgive them?
Some MPs may have consituency associations who are seriously hard Brexiteers and they might be under a lot of pressure locally to get Brexit done. But if it all goes wrong and the economy turns down with jobs lost and employment rights eroded they will carry the blame?
There is a lot of political planning going on by both sides. The remain alliance will apparently not table an amendment calling for a confirmatory vote until the government is defeated on the substantive motion, otherwise they fear their amendment will be lost immediately. This too might sway some Conservative and Labour MPs to vote against. Going in to the lobby, they will know defeating the government the first time round will mean the amendment for a confirmatory vote will allow the Bill to pass later, subject to the people having the final say.
There is still everything to play for.
If we do win a confirmatory vote it will be for every remainer to do everything they possibly can to avoid a second defeat. That really would be the end.
Finally, even though I have already posted several references to Johnson vowing never to put a border down the Irish sea, as a further warning to anyone who thinks Johnson can be trusted, have a read of this article in The Belfast Telegraph about him attending the DUP conference in November 2018 where he was cheered as he lambasted the border backstop in Theresa May’s withdrawal deal. He made clear that fresh regulatory and customs checks in the Irish Sea would not happen on his watch.
"Mr Johnson insisted such a system would leave Northern Ireland as an 'economic semi-colony of the EU'. I have to tell you no British Conservative government could or should sign up to any such arrangement,” he said to cheers from the audience.
If I was a fisherman or a farmer or indeed anyone with an interest in Britain's future, I would be very wary of him negotiating a free trade deal on our behalf.
There is still everything to play for.
If we do win a confirmatory vote it will be for every remainer to do everything they possibly can to avoid a second defeat. That really would be the end.
Finally, even though I have already posted several references to Johnson vowing never to put a border down the Irish sea, as a further warning to anyone who thinks Johnson can be trusted, have a read of this article in The Belfast Telegraph about him attending the DUP conference in November 2018 where he was cheered as he lambasted the border backstop in Theresa May’s withdrawal deal. He made clear that fresh regulatory and customs checks in the Irish Sea would not happen on his watch.
"Mr Johnson insisted such a system would leave Northern Ireland as an 'economic semi-colony of the EU'. I have to tell you no British Conservative government could or should sign up to any such arrangement,” he said to cheers from the audience.
If I was a fisherman or a farmer or indeed anyone with an interest in Britain's future, I would be very wary of him negotiating a free trade deal on our behalf.
