The last 21 days have been a masterclass in how not to negotiate. After his meeting with Johnson on 10th October in Cheshire, the Irish PM came away with a clear understanding of two things. Firstly, that it had finally dawned on the British side there was to be no compromise by the EU on the Irish border question. Secondly, and crucially, he also realised how desperate Johnson was to get the UK out by October 31st. Varadkar and EU then got Johnson to capitulate on all fronts in return for some very rapid renegotiation of the WA.
The timing pressure meant we were making all the concessions while the EU simply engaged in some very modest reworking of their first proposal, the one that both Johnson and May had rejected outright as something no British PM could ever consider. It was the only 'oven ready' solution and he had to eat it because nothing else was available.
But here we are on November 1st, still a member of the EU. What has been achieved?
Johnson has given away the shop but failed to meet his own self-imposed deadline anyway. A negotiating disaster is now being presented as some great achievement. But think about it. Johnson gambled away Northern Ireland in a frantic last ditch effort to meet his own October 31st date and lost everything. We now have a divided country, the DUP will never trust the PM again and the future integrity of the United Kingdom is under serious threat. All to satisfy one man's ego about a totally arbitrary date. It's not even as if his word is worth anything anyway.
I mention this also because we are supposed to learn later today how Farage's Brexit Party (TBP) will organise their election campaign. It was originally understood that they would select candidates in 600+ constituencies but there are now rumours that this could be as low as 20-30 leave voting Labour seats in the north of England.
Even if there is no formal pact with Johnson there should rationally be an informal one. It does not make any sense for TBP to spend a fortune spreading themselves thinly across the nation only to dilute support for the Tories and risk Brexit not happening at all. Far better and more logical to focus on a few key seats with the best candidates and serious funding. This is really about another man's ego. Will Farage be willing to essentially back Johnson's deal which he has attacked as a very bad one? Maybe not. City AM this morning claims Farage will launch TBP's election campaign this morning and will target 'hundreds' of seats.
If Farage does eventually offer to buttress Johnson's chances it may be that some parties will be more inclined to form alliances. A couple of days ago it was announced the LibDems were in talks with other smaller opposition parties to arrange some sort of electoral pact. At the moment Labour is not involved but Farage's decision may change that.
It would be a remarkable thing if a Leave alliance was faced with a Remain alliance in many if not most of the target marginals. Is it out of the question? Perhaps not, you never know.
It is after all the logical position in what promises to be the most tactical election ever.
The first polls of the campaign are HERE.
The first polls of the campaign are HERE.
