Brexit Johnson is going to get caught in a big fat wringer sooner or later. He is making an even bigger mess of Brexit than Mrs May. The majority he won last month has simply given him the chance to do it unhindered and all by himself. The strategy of deliberately not aligning with EU regulations, as re-confirmed yesterday by the chancellor, has already provoked a backlash from British industry. These are organisations who wrote to Steven Barclay and Gove last October warning of the severe damage such a policy would cause.
On one side the EU are pushing for close alignment and a level playing field and British industry have now joined in to help. On the other side are the swivel-eyed Brexiteers and Donald Trump. Both sides cannot be satisfied and personally, I expect industry and the EU will win since the sheer cost of losing access to the European market would be massive.
Johnson is making the final climb down more steeper and more humiliating than it needs to be although I expect the voters will forgive him for it.
Johnson is making the final climb down more steeper and more humiliating than it needs to be although I expect the voters will forgive him for it.
His avowed policy at the moment seems deliberately designed to cause maximum damage to the economy, to trade and to jobs and employment. In the 60s there was widespread fear that Russian backed communists were infiltrating key industries to cripple the nation. Now it looks like Putin has done the same with the Tory party.
Javid, in his FT interview yesterday was doing no more than restating government policy as annunciated last week by ERG chairman, Steve Baker. We can deduce who is driving the agenda here. Javid said:
“There will not be alignment, we will not be a ruletaker, we will not be in SM & we will not be in the CU - & we’ll do this by end of year”
There is some confusion about his comment on Japan's car exports and his apparent assertion they don't follow EU rules:
Sajid Javid: “Japan sells cars to the EU but they don’t follow EU rules.”— James Melville (@JamesMelville) January 18, 2020
He must have forgotten that the EU and Japan have recently agreed the world's biggest free trade deal.https://t.co/ldqVJz2ls2
I don't think Javid was talking about specific rules on motor vehicles (as Richard North seems to think also). Of course an exporting country must follow the importing country's rules. It's obvious to me that Javid is talking about the 'flanking' policies on the environment, labour and employment rights. I haven't actually read the details of the free trade deal between Japan and the EU but there are bound to be some references in it to anti-dumping measures and competition policy. And bear in mind Japan is on the other side of the world and not as we are, on the EU's doorstep so the conditions are not so onerous.
The General Conditions section of the Japan FTA is 562 pages long and competition policy is dealt with in broad terms in Chapter 11. I am sure if I go through it in detail there will be some provisions to prevent one side or the other gaining a competitive advantage, so Javid may find we don't have all that much more freedom if we also sign an FTA with the EU.
And according to the BBC:
"The chancellor also said he wanted to double the UK's annual economic growth to between 2.7 and 2.8%.
To add to the sense of chaos and uncertainty, The Guardian are reporting what I can only assume are comments from Dominic Cummings warning of sackings and dire consequences for cabinet ministers who don't "shape up".
"Boris Johnson is to tell cabinet ministers that they must focus all their energy on developing policies for post-Brexit Britain – or face the sack in a wide-ranging cabinet reshuffle within weeks."
"Government sources revealed on Saturday night that the head of the No 10 policy unit, Munira Mirza, would soon be writing to all cabinet ministers to tell them that delivering on the prime minister’s agenda would be the “key demand” of No 10.
Brexit Johnson is behaving like the king in Rumpelstiltskin. Demanding that cabinet ministers deliver on spinning straw into gold. The miller (played by Nigel Farage) has convinced the king that Brexit will turn Britain into a fabulously wealthy global superpower to rival China and the USA. A bit like Bahrain + Norway and the size of Russia. The King (BJ) hasn't a clue how to do it himself, although he successfully sold it to the nation, and is now exhorting cabinet ministers to deliver the impossible dream. If not he will have a few handy scapegoats to blame.
Javid (playing the miller's daughter) is sitting up late every night in his castle (The Treasury) in a flat panic and in fear of his political life waiting for a Rumpelstilstksin-like dwarf (Rishi Sunak) to dream up some fantasy that will make good on the king's demands.
It's British history being written by the brothers Grim [sic] and will not end well.
"The outgoing governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, told the Financial Times last week he thought the UK's trend growth rate was much lower, at between 1 and 1.5%.
"Mr Javid said the extra growth would come from spending on skills and infrastructure in the Midlands and the north of England - even if they did not offer as much "bang for the buck" as projects in other parts of the country."
Perversely, this is going to be achieved by cutting the country off from its largest overseas market and implementing new trade, agriculture and immigration bills. Not only will we lose frictionless trade with Europe, industry being saddled with a whole barrage of new costs and delays, but also the entire nation is to be destabilised with totally untested policies on virtually every aspect of day-to-day life. Talk about being thrown in at the deep end!
The notion that any of this will help level up or reduce inequality or help the left behind is just ridiculous. The north east and the west midlands in particular are going to look like a wasteland.
To add to the sense of chaos and uncertainty, The Guardian are reporting what I can only assume are comments from Dominic Cummings warning of sackings and dire consequences for cabinet ministers who don't "shape up".
"Boris Johnson is to tell cabinet ministers that they must focus all their energy on developing policies for post-Brexit Britain – or face the sack in a wide-ranging cabinet reshuffle within weeks."
"Government sources revealed on Saturday night that the head of the No 10 policy unit, Munira Mirza, would soon be writing to all cabinet ministers to tell them that delivering on the prime minister’s agenda would be the “key demand” of No 10.
Brexit Johnson is behaving like the king in Rumpelstiltskin. Demanding that cabinet ministers deliver on spinning straw into gold. The miller (played by Nigel Farage) has convinced the king that Brexit will turn Britain into a fabulously wealthy global superpower to rival China and the USA. A bit like Bahrain + Norway and the size of Russia. The King (BJ) hasn't a clue how to do it himself, although he successfully sold it to the nation, and is now exhorting cabinet ministers to deliver the impossible dream. If not he will have a few handy scapegoats to blame.
Javid (playing the miller's daughter) is sitting up late every night in his castle (The Treasury) in a flat panic and in fear of his political life waiting for a Rumpelstilstksin-like dwarf (Rishi Sunak) to dream up some fantasy that will make good on the king's demands.
It's British history being written by the brothers Grim [sic] and will not end well.
