If we look back to 2017 and the negotiating guidelines published by Brussels, we can see that the EU achieved all the objectives it set itself and did not breach any of it's red lines. They got the sequencing they wanted, the money, citizen's rights and the Irish border issue all resolved to their satisfaction. To the extent there were actually any negotiations it was usually to get us to agree to their terms. So, the publication of the slides used to present draft ideas for the second phase at a recent seminar are probably a pretty good clue to where we will finally end up.
I am particularly interested in the one on Level Playing Field (LPF) issues. Read it HERE.
The General Approach section begins with quotes lifted directly out of the political declaration:
- “any agreement with the UK will have to be based on a balance of rights and obligations, and ensure a level playing field”;
- Balanced, ambitious and wide-ranging free trade agreement “insofar as there are sufficient guarantees for a level playing field.” / “[any free trade agreement] must ensure a level playing field.”
- Given the UK's geographic proximity and economic interdependence with the EU27, the future relationship will only deliver in a mutually satisfactory way if it includes robust guarantees which ensure a level playing field.
- The aim should be to prevent unfair competitive advantage that the UK could enjoy through undercutting of levels of protection with respect to, inter alia, competition and state aid, tax, social, environment and regulatory measures and practices.
In a sign of the importance the EU attaches to this whole question, these are the first four bullet points. And these phrases are used time and again as if quoting from tablets of stone handed down by God himself or the gospel according to St Michel. There is perhaps a tendency on our side to think LPF is simply a shorthand phrase intended to describe something flexible, to be negotiated and settled after a week or two of cosy talks in Brussels. But I think not.
Adam Fleming at the BBC is reporting on the LPF slide notes although I do not see it has received wide coverage yet - but don't worry it soon will. None of the other major news outlets have even mentioned it as far as I can see. Be under no illusion this really will be the row of the summer because the entire Brexit project turns on it.
If we are kept very close with strong LPF commitments the ERG will say there was no point in Brexit at all. If we reject the whole idea of sticking close and following EU rules there may be no FTA at all and the economy will suffer a body blow.
Fleming says:
"EU officials are alert for signs that the UK might be softening on commitments made in the PD."
"Get used to another acronym - the LPF, or Level Playing Field.
"This is a series of measures to manage economic competition with the UK, which the EU says is necessary to reduce the risk of it being undercut by British firms that benefit from the new free trade agreement.
"The EU intends that the level playing field will cover taxation, labour relations and environmental policies, and government support for companies, known as "state aid."
"The main tool will be a promise not to fall below current shared standards known as the non-regression clause.
"But the EU has introduced an extra concept via the slides - "non-lowering".
"At first this sounds the same as non-regression but it means that if one party raises standards then there's a possibility they may never be allowed to be lowered again. This goes beyond merely maintaining existing standards.
"It's described in the presentations to diplomats as an "ambition to improve over time", but in negotiating parlance is called "dynamic alignment".
"This is a massive no-no for the British government and will likely cause a big row."
He can say that again.
The fog is lifting.
