The Daily Mail reported at the weekend that the government are restarting preparations for failing to get a deal by the end of the year. This is hardly a surprise given the comments from Dominic Cummings who only ever has two settings, malign and belligerent, in the same article. He is quoted as telling reporters that "Brussels has not yet 'woken up' to Britain's negotiating position – and would not for several weeks yet." He apparently told No 10 advisers last week "We are not bluffing on the no extension."
Don't worry, there will be an extension. This is just Cummings' usual bluster.
However, it will not have escaped the EU's notice that he also warned Brussels has:
"failed to grasp their judges will have no power and we are not interested in level playing fields".
The Political Declaration - agreed to by Brexit Johnson and about to be ratified by parliament - has umpteen references to level playing fields including a whole section (XIV - paragraph 77) with the title: LEVEL PLAYING FIELD FOR OPEN AND FAIR COMPETITION.
In other words we have already made explicit and solemn commitments to the LPF that we are apparently no longer interested in. How do you handle this sort of thing? The EU are very wary of backsliding and Cummings' comments can only add to their concerns that we have signed up to something which we actually have no intention of meeting. Europeans regard the written word in contracts as something to be honoured to the letter. They will be absolutely appalled and will only seek more legal assurances with proper enforcement mechanisms before they sign up to any deal. It will all backfire and serve only to increase the likelihood that we leave next December without a deal.
I doubt that we will actually do so and there will need to be an extension. But I want to consider what happens afterwards even if we do reach an agreement.
I doubt that we will actually do so and there will need to be an extension. But I want to consider what happens afterwards even if we do reach an agreement.
David Henig is a trade expert, one who tweets regularly on Brexit and I was struck by a thread he posted last week where he cautioned against thinking Brexit would be a fast acting disaster, the consequences of which would be immediately noticeable after January 31st. It may not even be felt seriously in 2021 or for years after that. It was all a bit disappointing I'm sorry to say.
This is his tweet:
Those who are continually tweeting that Brexit is going to mean widespread economic misery in the UK are no more likely to be right than those on the other side expecting Brexit to be the start of economic boom times.— David Henig (@DavidHenigUK) January 14, 2020
Notice in the thread he cites the example of Ireland which is doing very well. I first went to Ireland in the mid 70s just after it joined the EU along with the UK. It was very poor. Now it has a GDP per capita twice that of the UK. This has gone unnoticed by most people in Britain and Henig thinks we could easily fall further behind and still nobody would realise. I tend to think this is probably right.
You might also note in the thread he mentions that Irish exports are approaching half that of the UK. This surprised me considering Ireland has a population of just under 5 million, about a 13th of Britain's near 67 million.
I confess that I cannot find an official figure for Ireland's 2018 services exports to check it (Henig claims it was £180 billion) but the goods figure at £140 billion is certainly roughly correct as you can see from these Eurostat numbers (page 3) where Ireland's goods exports for Jan-Nov 2018 was €139.9 billion. So I think we can assume the total of £320 billion is believable. By contrast the total of the UK's exports in 2018 was £657 billion.
This is an amazing performance by the Irish and I expect most people in this country would be very surprised. Leavers will claim they've done it somehow with our money. Ireland, like other EU countries (Belgium's goods exports are virtually the same as ours for example), has made a success of membership while we haven't. Ireland, again according to Henig, is the EU's largest exporter of pharmaceuticals, something I was unaware of although I know they have a lot of pharmaceutical companies operating in the republic.
So, Ireland is doing very well, but Brexiteers and leave voters haven't noticed. And they are also unlikely to notice another long period ahead where we continue falling behind. Brexit will be like running a marathon where you can't see your competitors. They are streaking ahead while you think you're doing really well - or certainly not that badly until you realise they have reached the stadium while you are only half-way there.
It may take a long time for the nation to appreciate just what sort of economic harm has been visited upon us by Brexit. But I am sure eventually, even the most ardent supporters will accept it has all been disastrous.
You might like to see this Twitter thread from Simon Fraser, former Foreign Office & Business Department mandarin and ex Chief of Staff to an EU Trade Commissioner about his view of what's about to hit us after the 31st of this month:
And although nothing will have changed, everything will have changed psychologically because from 1 Feb we will be negotiating with #EU as an outside country. For the first time we will be overtly charting a different course, which our political rhetoric will play up..
So far we have been making theoretical choices about the future. Soon the choices will become real, with real costs. Two things will determine what happens this year: the timeline we set & the degree of divergence we pursue. These #Brexit choices are both in UK hands..
If UK insists on a 31 Dec deadline for future partnership agreement without extension the likely result is a thin deal on a limited range of issues prioritised by #EU. At worst, little more than an uprated version of barebones #nodeal agreements discussed last year..
And if UK insists on divergence from #singlemarket regulation & “level playing field” in order to compete with EU the result will be that #EU competes back by reducing acces to our largest trade market. They want a constructive outcome, but will not be giving freebies..
Fraser is right about all the choices so far have been theoretical and without cost - although in practice there has been an unseen cost, or one that is not necessarily explicitly connected to Brexit - but at the end of the month that will change. Real decisions will be needed which affect real people, real jobs in ways that are all too real.
Brexit Johnson has not been all that decisive on HS2 or Heathrow expansion but these are the sort of decisions which he will soon have to take alongside others which in the long run will have a massive impact on the wealth and prosperity of the entire nation. Is he the right man to make these momentous decisions?
No.
To add to his problems, the newly reformed power sharing executive in Northern Ireland has joined Holyrood in voting against giving their consent to the PM's deal. It is being suggested that the Welsh Assembly is being urged to do the same. If they do, three of the four nations of the union will have set their face against Brexit Johnson's Brexit. Amazing or what?
You might also note in the thread he mentions that Irish exports are approaching half that of the UK. This surprised me considering Ireland has a population of just under 5 million, about a 13th of Britain's near 67 million.
I confess that I cannot find an official figure for Ireland's 2018 services exports to check it (Henig claims it was £180 billion) but the goods figure at £140 billion is certainly roughly correct as you can see from these Eurostat numbers (page 3) where Ireland's goods exports for Jan-Nov 2018 was €139.9 billion. So I think we can assume the total of £320 billion is believable. By contrast the total of the UK's exports in 2018 was £657 billion.
This is an amazing performance by the Irish and I expect most people in this country would be very surprised. Leavers will claim they've done it somehow with our money. Ireland, like other EU countries (Belgium's goods exports are virtually the same as ours for example), has made a success of membership while we haven't. Ireland, again according to Henig, is the EU's largest exporter of pharmaceuticals, something I was unaware of although I know they have a lot of pharmaceutical companies operating in the republic.
So, Ireland is doing very well, but Brexiteers and leave voters haven't noticed. And they are also unlikely to notice another long period ahead where we continue falling behind. Brexit will be like running a marathon where you can't see your competitors. They are streaking ahead while you think you're doing really well - or certainly not that badly until you realise they have reached the stadium while you are only half-way there.
It may take a long time for the nation to appreciate just what sort of economic harm has been visited upon us by Brexit. But I am sure eventually, even the most ardent supporters will accept it has all been disastrous.
You might like to see this Twitter thread from Simon Fraser, former Foreign Office & Business Department mandarin and ex Chief of Staff to an EU Trade Commissioner about his view of what's about to hit us after the 31st of this month:
I summarise:1/10: We are 12 days from legal #Brexit. What will happen on 31 Jan? What will it feel like on 1 Feb? More important, what will happen after that? In a nutshell, nothing will change & everything will change. And harder choices lie ahead. Thread of 10...— Simon Fraser (@SimonFraser00) January 19, 2020
And although nothing will have changed, everything will have changed psychologically because from 1 Feb we will be negotiating with #EU as an outside country. For the first time we will be overtly charting a different course, which our political rhetoric will play up..
So far we have been making theoretical choices about the future. Soon the choices will become real, with real costs. Two things will determine what happens this year: the timeline we set & the degree of divergence we pursue. These #Brexit choices are both in UK hands..
If UK insists on a 31 Dec deadline for future partnership agreement without extension the likely result is a thin deal on a limited range of issues prioritised by #EU. At worst, little more than an uprated version of barebones #nodeal agreements discussed last year..
And if UK insists on divergence from #singlemarket regulation & “level playing field” in order to compete with EU the result will be that #EU competes back by reducing acces to our largest trade market. They want a constructive outcome, but will not be giving freebies..
Fraser is right about all the choices so far have been theoretical and without cost - although in practice there has been an unseen cost, or one that is not necessarily explicitly connected to Brexit - but at the end of the month that will change. Real decisions will be needed which affect real people, real jobs in ways that are all too real.
Brexit Johnson has not been all that decisive on HS2 or Heathrow expansion but these are the sort of decisions which he will soon have to take alongside others which in the long run will have a massive impact on the wealth and prosperity of the entire nation. Is he the right man to make these momentous decisions?
No.
To add to his problems, the newly reformed power sharing executive in Northern Ireland has joined Holyrood in voting against giving their consent to the PM's deal. It is being suggested that the Welsh Assembly is being urged to do the same. If they do, three of the four nations of the union will have set their face against Brexit Johnson's Brexit. Amazing or what?
