Wednesday 29 January 2020

Polling, immigration, fishing and Ireland: the problems mount

I used to post regularly about a series of polls conducted by YouGov asking in hindsight if the decision to leave the the EU was right or wrong. For the past two years and more there has been a majority, growing slowly but inexorably, who thought it was wrong. The last poll, the 136th since August 2016, was published on November 12th so it hasn't been possible to see how public opinion has changed around the election. But yesterday the 137th came out. And it was no surprise that it shows a solid majority of 54% still think it's wrong (after don't knows are excluded).

In the data which YouGov published, the regional figures show almost 75% of Scots now think it's wrong. This will be a boost for Nicola Sturgeon and bring on calls for Indyref2 sooner rather than later.

More than this, and perhaps the biggest surprise to me, there is now a majority (53%) in the north of England who believe it's a mistake. In fact the only two areas where we can see more people still think Brexit is right, is in the Midlands and Wales (54%) and the South of England (51%).

It backs up the polling data presented at last Saturday's Grassroots for Europe conference in London. This is a bit more complicated to follow but on page 2 you can see the centre ground voters (13 million in the red oval) have been divided into two groups, the community working class and the disengaged/disillusioned.

On page 3 you can see a big drop in support for Brexit among these two groups of voters.

Among the community working class it has slipped from 48% to 32% while among the disengaged/disillusioned it has fallen from 55% to 38%. These are significant figures and show that enthusiasm for the project is seriously eroding in the centre ground, the place where you would expect it to fall first.  This is all good news for our cause going forward.

Immigration

The independent Migration Advisory Committee yesterday published its 278 page report into government proposals to introduce a points based system (PBS) to control immigration. I am afraid they are not impressed. In fact they say its pointless. The chair obviously has a sense of humour:

"The current form of Tier 2 (General) has evolved from being part of an ‘Australian points-based system’ promised by Tony Blair in the 2005 election and introduced from 2008. Originally a points-based system with tradeable points, it is currently a PBS in name only, with successful applicants having to meet all criteria. We do not recommend changes to this framework; the combination of skill eligibility and a salary threshold works well for an employer-driven system. The current packaging as a PBS is, forgive the pun, pointless and could be eliminated".

The PBS was dismissed by Theresa May years ago but favoured by Brexit Johnson and Priti Patel because it sounds tough and fair. The MAC found Tony Blair tried the same thing 15 years ago but failed and we ended up with a PBS in name only. I suspect we will do the same again. The report says:

"The conclusions are broadly in line with what I wrote in my Foreword to our 2018 report on EEA migration that “EEA migration as a whole has had neither the large negative effects claimed by some nor the clear benefits claimed by others”. 

"Compared to what would happen under continued free movement, we expect the changes to reduce the levels of immigration, the size of the UK population and total GDP. We expect the changes to very slightly increase GDP per capita, productivity, and improve the public finances, though these estimates are more uncertain."

Reading between the lines we can see the committee think  the new immigration policy, and indeed perhaps Brexit itself, is intended to solve a non-existent problem.

Newsnight last night had an item about Melton Mowbray where employers in the food and agriculture industries who voted to leave in 2016 are now worried about getting enough migrant labour. Even the new lower salary of £25,600 suggested by the MAC is still seen as far too high. It's hard to believe any system will satisfy everybody. It will be another area where the government is going to spend years constantly fiddling with the bureaucratic details trying to square circles, before we eventually rejoin the EU and adopt FoM again.

Fishing

Today the government's proposals for the fishing industry are to be published. This is perhaps an even more contentious area.  Sky News are reporting nervousness among fishermen who fear being sold down the river as they feel they were in 1973.  I couldn't help but notice the words of a Mr Jim Portas,  chief executive of South Western Fish Producer Organisation, who is quoted as saying:

"The fishing industry is the acid test of Boris Johnson's government in Number 10 and I sincerely hope that he will live up to all the promises he's made for more than three years now"

I am puzzled about where Mr Portas has been living for the past few years. Brexit Johnson is a liar extraordinaire and I would point him to the words of Nick Boles describing the PM last November:

“A compulsive liar who has betrayed every single person he has ever had any dealings with: every woman who has ever loved him, every member of his family, every friend, every colleague, every employee, every constituent,” 

I hope Britain's fishermen are prepared for bitter disappointment. They will not be alone.

Ireland

Brexit Johnson has been digging himself a deep hole on the Irish sea border question, denying there will be checks and repeatedly claiming NI business will have unfettered access. In the face of the EU's hard-line stance and recent statements from Barnier, the PM, unlike any normal person, does not stop digging, he calls on his deputy Michael Gove to pick up a shovel and help.

And amazingly, Gove does exactly that:

Mr Gove told BBC News NI: "We will make sure that the unfettered access that we want to have for goods circulating within the UK is absolutely protected.

What will our negotiating partners in Brussels make of it?  It looks like whatever has affected Brexit Johnson has now spread to Gove. Perhaps all members of the cabinet have caught it - a bit like coronavirus? The ability to deny the existence of reality is becoming endemic.

Finally, can I leave you with this rather moving tweet from Alyn Smith, former MEP and now, since December 13th, the MP for Stirling:
We still have many friends in Europe.
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