Tuesday 28 January 2020

Things are starting to pile up for Brexit Johnson and No 10

As we approach B-day the pro-Brexit press are hyper-ventilating at the prospect. The Daily Express in particular tells its dwindling gaggle of readers that the EU is in a 'panic' after Barnier 'admits Johnson's Brexit plot could cost MILLIONS of jobs across Europe', the headline containing shouty capitals to emphasise the disaster awaiting Europe.  Not for the first time, the Express has got entirely the wrong end of the stick.

However, the story was instantly tweeted by the Twitter account StandUp4Brexit:
In the report's text we get the words Barnier actually used (presumably in Dublin yesterday morning), responding to a point about Britain's plan to diverge from EU rules:

"The challenge is not to have at our doors a neighbour who would become a champion of regulatory competition at all levels: fiscal, social, environmental ... Millions of jobs are at stake in Europe."

But the Express headline and the subsequent tweet, miss the caveat. Barnier makes clear that Brussels would only open its markets to British firms if the UK Government continues to follow their rulebook. In other words it will cost millions of jobs only IF the EU opens up the single market to a deregulated UK. This is precisely why it will never happen. Rather than a vindication of Johnson's plan, it is the very reason why the EU cannot make any concessions on that score.  And if we don't get access to the single market the millions of job losses will be here in the UK not on the continent.

In The Telegraph, Peter Foster, winding down before his move to The Times, is trying as a last despairing effort to educate his readers to the difficulties that lay ahead:
He is making a point about the enormous regulatory gravity the EU has as I posted about recently. He concludes that there are going to be some hard lessons for Brexiteers - that the UK will end up as a rule-taker, even when we have the nominal 'freedom' to diverge.  We may gain the technical ability and the legal right to diverge but the sheer cost of doing so will render these rights nugatory, as the lawyers would say, - in other words, meaningless and of no value.

Foster gives the example of the Swiss attempt to break from Free Movement, or Norway and the Postal Services Directive. They both backed down in the end, as we will in future, unwilling to pay the price in lost access to the single market.

In a BBC interview Leo Varadkar says something blindingly obvious, that the EU will have the upper hand in trade talks, but this is treated by the media as if it's a provocative statement and a bolt from the blue.  Richard Corbett explains on his blog how the real problems are about to begin for the UK government. Well worth a read.

Last weekend at the Grassroots conference the talk was of waiting to see how things play out and I suppose most people were thinking in terms of months or even years but I noted Dan Hodges at The Daily Mail was writing yesterday about the chaos and growing tensions inside Johnson's government now. We may not have very long to wait.

"Another Minister painted the following picture: 'Everything's just being left to pile up. We had no coherent Iran response for days. We've got HS2, another rail report, 5G, something on education, the Budget and nothing's being decided.'

"To understand why this chaos is emerging, it helps to remember something lost in the drama of Election night. Confusion has lurked amid the Johnson administration since day one.

"The idea of the Downing Street Grand Strategy was always a myth. Remember what we were told the masterplan was? Boris had learned the lesson of Theresa May's reckless Election gamble. What was needed was someone who would stare down Brussels, Parliament and the rest of the British Establishment, and drive Brexit through on pain of a No Deal departure."

"We are told he is minded to rubber-stamp Mrs May's decision to grant Chinese access to the 5G network, despite shrill US objections. Or he may not. He may axe one of the largest infrastructure projects in British history into which billions have already been sunk. Or he may not. But in any case, according to his officials, whatever is decided, we should not expect to see too much of him over the coming months. His role is not going to be that of a traditional Prime Minister, or even a traditional Cabinet Minister, but more a chairman of the board.

"Ask Ministers and officials where the Government's dynamism and direction will be coming from over the next five years, and you're met with a shrug."

Meanwhile, the newspapers are full of stories about Nissan reversing out of the UK, business leaders finally being consulted on trade but accusing the government of doing too little, too late, London losing ground to New York as the world's leading financial centre, fishermen waking up to the fact that they are soon to be sold out, and the £100 billion a year logistics industry claiming the government is ignoring them by not answering 31 questions they have submitted about Brexit. Note this was just yesterday.

Today the National Security Council meets to decide on using Huawei in our 5G network, with reports coming in that the Chinese company will be allowed a limited role. Trump will be livid. It will be another nail in the coffin of a quick US-UK trade deal along with Javid's insistence on implementing the digital tax on American internet companies.

It really is starting to pile up outside No 10.
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