On the day both sides are due to reveal their negotiating guidelines, I think the government has finally recognised the fix that it has got itself into with all the contradictory and undeliverable promises. Brexit has always looked like a plate spinning act performed by someone finding it increasingly hard to keep them all going. Some plates are going to fall very soon, so a patsy is needed to take responsibility. Preferably this should be something or someone as far as plausibly possible from those actually responsible in the Tory party.
It doesn't take a genius to see who that is likely to be. Brussels will soon become the lightning rod for all the failures - as I expect they already realise. Enter Dominic Raab, MP for Esher and Walton, Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and what years ago we would have called a right prat.
He got the whole thing going on Sky's Sophie Ridge programme yesterday. I didn't see it myself but rely on Twitter and Mujtaba Rahman:
This is the prelude to Johnson's speech later today where he will re-emphasise the UK will not follow EU rules but still expect a Canada ++ free trade deal. This despite the EU repeatedly saying both in the political declaration (para 17) and numerous speeches that a level playing field is part of the balance between access to the SM and obligation to fair trade. It is paving the way to blame the EU when it all goes wrong,.@DominicRaab argues on @SophyRidgeSky multiple times that EU has committed to no UK-EU checks even if UK doesn't align. Ridge asks several times, same answer. Ground being laid to blame EU when implications of Canada/Australia or whatever minimal FTA is finalised become apparent— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) February 2, 2020
This was all sparked off by a story in the Telegraph that Boris Johnson's team was 'infuriated' as EU 'reneges' on a free trade deal. Needless to say the EU have strenuously denied it as Robert Peston explains. The EU are not reneging on anything.
If you want to read more why this story is nonsense, a Twitter thread from David Henig may also be useful:
Raab also claimed that Michel Barnier was 'wrong' about checks on the Irish border (he isn't). This will not read well in Brussels. It looks like we're trying to back out of the commitments we've already made. Usually, we might expect talks like the ones coming up to break down in acrimony at the end, these threaten to do so at the beginning, making them all the more unique.The Number 10 brief is no alignment, no concessions, no ECJ, and we want exactly the same deal as the EU gave to Canada. Also that the EU offered this then took it away. On this basis no deal (and also probably no deal with the US) and serious economic damage. Let's unpack... 1/ https://t.co/EfjIZKgJJn— David Henig (@DavidHenigUK) February 2, 2020
Brexit Johnson is expected to deliver a fantasy formal speech later, setting out the cake we will both have and eat when the trade talks begin. He is starting just as Theresa May and David David did at the outset of the withdrawal agreement negotiations, talking tough but from a position of profound weakness. Britain is not in a position to 'demand' things.
It's a Canada style trade deal or we'll 'walk away' apparently. Walking away is not an option. Sterling is already a bit twitchy and the public finances are not in good shape. Imagine the market reaction if the UK announced it was terminating discussions.
Talking tough is fine if you really are prepared to go all the way. Brexit Johnson will never do it. The fall out would be both immense and unpredictable. A financial crisis might force him back to the table in a position even weaker than he is now. It would probably topple him.
"In a telegram sent to UK overseas missions last week, he told diplomats to ditch any ideas to “seek residual influence” with EU countries and “adopt a stance as a confident independent country” instead.
This is just whistling in the dark to keep your spirits up.
Talking tough is fine if you really are prepared to go all the way. Brexit Johnson will never do it. The fall out would be both immense and unpredictable. A financial crisis might force him back to the table in a position even weaker than he is now. It would probably topple him.
Yesterday, The Sunday Times reports that our ambassadors and others abroad have been told to spurn EU27 diplomats. A note sent out by the foreign secretary Dominic Raab, advises our foreign representatives to "sit separately" from EU 27 diplomats at official functions. The article goes on:
"In a telegram sent to UK overseas missions last week, he told diplomats to ditch any ideas to “seek residual influence” with EU countries and “adopt a stance as a confident independent country” instead.
This is just whistling in the dark to keep your spirits up.
The old 2016 slogan of taking back control is going to look a bit daft if you continue to blame others when you can't get what you want. We sat at the top table in Europe until three days ago, now we are begging, stamping our feet and throwing tantrums outside the back door.
I still believe that ultimately, the voice of business will be decisive. This will be a combination of them putting pressure on Johnson to maintain regulatory alignment, threats of and actual closures and relocations.
This is because Brexit Johnson, Raab, Cummings and all the other lunatics behind Brexit have a completely illusory view of British industry. They genuinely think we are world leaders in robotics or AI or any number of things but the EU is deliberately holding us back. This idea has been amplified by the right wing press and a lot of ordinary people believe it. A lot of CEOs believe it as well. Our products are so good, we have a massive trade deficit, particularly with the EU27 on a level playing field. Think about it.
As an example, take Norton motorcycles. They have struggled for years. Last year Stephen Barclay told us that Norton was an example of a "great business" that would thrive when Britain leaves the EU. In 2018 the CEO Stuart Garner said the UK was 'better prepared' than the media would have us believe, business was good and they expected to recruit 100 more staff.
In March last year Mr Garner said Brexit had been a spur:
"It was easy for us to become lazy, to say we’ll go to France, Italy and Germany. Brexit made us look further afield".
Well they won't need to look further afield now. They've gone into administration.
Brexit is like a trapdoor. You can descend into your own fantasy world temporarily but you cannot escape reality permanently - as we are all about to discover
I still believe that ultimately, the voice of business will be decisive. This will be a combination of them putting pressure on Johnson to maintain regulatory alignment, threats of and actual closures and relocations.
This is because Brexit Johnson, Raab, Cummings and all the other lunatics behind Brexit have a completely illusory view of British industry. They genuinely think we are world leaders in robotics or AI or any number of things but the EU is deliberately holding us back. This idea has been amplified by the right wing press and a lot of ordinary people believe it. A lot of CEOs believe it as well. Our products are so good, we have a massive trade deficit, particularly with the EU27 on a level playing field. Think about it.
As an example, take Norton motorcycles. They have struggled for years. Last year Stephen Barclay told us that Norton was an example of a "great business" that would thrive when Britain leaves the EU. In 2018 the CEO Stuart Garner said the UK was 'better prepared' than the media would have us believe, business was good and they expected to recruit 100 more staff.
In March last year Mr Garner said Brexit had been a spur:
"It was easy for us to become lazy, to say we’ll go to France, Italy and Germany. Brexit made us look further afield".
Well they won't need to look further afield now. They've gone into administration.
Brexit is like a trapdoor. You can descend into your own fantasy world temporarily but you cannot escape reality permanently - as we are all about to discover
