Friday 14 February 2020

Reshuffle: how not to do it

Well nobody saw that coming. Brexit Johnson's mini-reshuffle turned into a fiasco when the chancellor suddenly resigned halfway through. It was not so much a surgical strike as carpet bombing.  I assume Javid couldn't bring himself to deliver Dominic Cummings' budget next month although the official reason is that Johnson, or more likely Cummings, wanted him to sack all of his special advisers. The man given an "absolutely categoric" assurance by the PM only last November that he would keep him in office has now gone.

He is replaced by a man who looks like a fifteen year old schoolboy wearing a uniform several sizes too small. Either that or he uses the same tailor as Norman Wisdom. To describe him as a speak-your-weight machine would be praise indeed. Seven months ago Rishi Sunak was a junior housing minister and only entered parliament in 2015, presumably straight from school.  He is a former banker, very rich and the son-in-law of an Indian billionaire.

There is a lot of speculation that it was all engineered to force Javid out but the BBC's Lewis Goodall brushed that away with this tweet:
This is not the action of a confident prime minister. It is reminiscent of Nigel Lawson's resignation over Sir Alan Walters concerning the role of special advisers. Thatcher welcomed dissenting voices in cabinet because that allowed her to test her own arguments and develop robust policies. Surrounding yourself with yes men is a recipe for disaster.

Javid was apparently known as 'Chino' or chancellor in name only. The title now passes to Sunak as Javid becomes the shortest serving chancellor for fifty years, never having delivered a budget. Oh well, at least he'll be good for pub quizzes in future.

Is it a power grab? Probably. But you can change the chancellor as many times as you like, the economic weather remains the same. Sunak will soon find himself as unpopular in No 10 as Javid if he presents Treasury facts or asks awkward questions. If he's just a stooge, the inevitable interdepartmental spending conflicts will end up on Johnson's desk. 

But let us be clear, the cabinet now contains a level of ineptitude unparalleled in modern times.  Raab at the FO, Patel at the Home Office, Sunak at The Treasury and a bunch of placemen everywhere else all led by Brexit Johnson and the psychopath Cummings.

For we remainers it's a good thing. Firstly, Brexit Johnson now owns his special folly 100%. He will never be able to shift the blame for the coming disaster onto anybody else.  Secondly, it weakens Cummings if anything, with many back bench Tories already uneasy at the power wielded by a vicious unelected adviser. Thirdly, it puts real voices of opposition among the rank and file and finally, it virtually guarantees a financial crisis.

It is an attempt to exercise tight control over the government's spending policy against the Treasury. It looks like the money taps will be turned full on. Thankfully we're still members of the IMF so Sunak can always ask for a loan when we run out of funds.  

Look out for more resignations, perhaps even at senior mandarin level. At best the move will cause a lot more friction between Downing Street and the Treasury. Arguments between 10 and 11 Downing Street always end with The Treasury victorious so it was futile anyway.

I am not sure how much longer the narcissistic sociopath Johnson will be able to accept tweets like this one from Iain Martin, a well know Times Journalist, and one of many put out in similar vein yesterday:
The reshuffle demonstrates that Brexit Johnson does not want to be overshadowed by anybody brighter than himself. Since he is none too clever, the cabinet is now stuffed with second raters. But he will not want to appear to be the puppet of Cummings for too long and this is exactly what everyone is thinking. The tweet was funny yesterday and the PM will not appreciate it.

Javid's resignation letter looks mild but he will be seething this morning:

Julian Smith
The sacking of Northern Ireland Secretary Julian Smith has baffled everybody. It seems he was respected all round by both sides in Northern Ireland and south of the border as well. What a message this sends to Brandon Lewis, who replaces him, and other ministers. Do too good a job and you'll go, do badly and you'll go. It's an incentive to mediocrity.

Smith was often the one cabinet minister said to point out problems as this Twitter thread explains and this was not always appreciated by the ever-optimistic Johnson. He was essentially fired for being too negative.  With a cabinet of yes men we might expect a lot more reckless policies.

However, as a former Chief Whip, Smith knows where the bodies are buried and he could be the focus of back bench dissent in the coming months. He especially resisted a no deal Brexit because of the damage this threatened in NI.


Geoffrey Cox

The old Attorney General suffered the greatest humiliation since he was replaced by Suella Braverman - imagine that. To be displaced by someone widely thought to be among the dimmest MPs in The House. It's obvious Brexit Johnson does not want to hear any legal advice that conflicts with his simple world view. And from Braverman he's unlikely to get it.

Cox's resignation looks like it was drafted by Uria Heap:
A crawler to the end.


 Alok Sharma

Johnson fired Claire O'Neil (nee Perry) saying he wanted a big hitter to become chair of  the forthcoming COP26 climate change conference in November.  He offered the job to Cameron and then Hague. Now he has appointed Alok Sharma to do the job and become Business Secretary into the bargain!  

If Sharma is a big hitter it seems a calculated insult for the other three. Sharma is not even well known in his own family.
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