Thursday 13 February 2020

The European Parliament enters the fray

The EU parliament stepped into the limelight in a very big way yesterday, threatening the whole idea of reaching a settlement on trade. A resolution setting out the parliament's conditions for agreeing a trade deal was passed by a huge majority of 543 votes to 39, with 69 abstentions. They didn't sugar the pill. Britain is going to have to sign up to dynamic alignment or walk away. We are finally approaching the nitty-gritty. After four long years of hypothetical back and forth, real decisions will soon have to be made.

In one sense the resolution was meaningless. MEPs have no official role in setting the negotiating mandate and the Commission could ignore it, although they would be wise not to and probably won't. MEPs are not officials, they are democratically elected individuals and quite independent, led by the fanatically pro-European Guy Verhofstadt. How ironic. We probably won't hear too much about unelected bureaucrats for a while.

What it does do is show the centre of gravity inside the EP, which will have to approve the deal at the end.  I suppose it's also a great opportunity to put one over on Farage after years of being abused by him and his UKIP and Brexit Party cronies.

Effectively, they are calling Johnson's bluff.

With masterly understatement the BBC's Adam Fleming said they had set "tough demands". It's also the latest example of the mandate being toughened up as it passes from institution to institution in the EU.  The Commission began by playing the soft cop but their initial draft mandate is being increasingly tightened down.  First by member states and now by MEPs.  

The resolution also demanded Brexit Johnson 'immediately clarify' his government’s approach to the Irish border protocol following his repeated claims that no checks would be required on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.

It did not take long for the media to contact Downing Street for an official reaction to the move. Predictably, they rejected it.

The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "The British people voted to be independent with control over our rules and laws, and so we will not accept alignment to EU rules in any way.

"Having autonomy over our rules and laws is exactly the same principle that the EU have set out in their mandate. In fact they have said the parties should ensure that the parties retain their autonomy and the ability to regulate economic activity. That is exactly what we are doing and asking."

No doubt this will be seen in Downing Street as just an initial negotiating position, a testing of our resolve. We will soon see which side is bluffing.

The EU parliament has no role in the negotiations until the time comes to ratify it. By that time, unless we are completely prepared to exit without a deal, 651 MEPs will hold the fate of Britain in their hands.

Take back control? Don't make me laugh.

I note this morning the great Dr North is dismissing the EP resolution, saying "the EU needs to stop wasting its time (and ours) pushing for the regulatory alignment that it is not going to get." I wouldn't be too sure. In the Withdrawal Agreement talks Barnier stuck rigidly to the mandate he was given with no concessions as far as I can see.  I don't expect the trade talks being any different.

As usual these things may go down to the wire and it will depend which side is under the greatest pressure at the end - which will be the UK for sure.  All Brussels has to do is wait for the pips to squeak.

With the trade talks at last getting started more footage is emerging of the promises made by leading Brexiteers about the level of access we were going to get to the single market. The BBC reported Gove in April 2016 making his claim about the UK being part of a European Free Trade Zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey - including countries like Bosnia, Serbia and Albania.

Andrea Leadsom, who probably won't survive today's reshuffle, gets a mention. An interview with Andrew Neil before the referendum surfaced yesterday:
People are now beginning to ask if the referendum result would have been the same if Brexiteers had been honest about the accumulating problems and costs instead of dismissing it all as scaremongering. A question that will become more prominent as time goes on.

The level playing field issue is shaping up to be the first and biggest hurdle in the trade talks. Very shortly we will have to face up to the central issue that has always been at the heart of Brexit. How close do we want to be to Brussels?  How much economic damage are we prepared to take?

All the easy Brexiteer assurances about Britain holding all the cards, choosing our own path, and a trade deal with the EU being the easiest thing in the world are soon to be tested to destruction.

The Brussels correspondent for The Guardian, Jennifer Rankin, tweeted about the change to the UK's position and status in Brussels. Not only have we lost 73 MEPs, and some very good ones too, but our diplomats have lost access to all the official sources of information. I read some time ago that we are planning to increase the number of staff in Brussels as the UK moves to become a third country. We will lose our voice and our veto and will be trying to influence things by much more extensive lobbying from outside. This is her tweet:
This is the inevitable result of leaving the top table. What a come down.

Finally, to touch once again on post Brexit customs have a look at this Twitter thread for a former customs officer:
Remember, out government is deliberately doing this.
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