With each passing day it becomes ever more obvious that there is no way we can leave the 'transition' period by the end of December without a trade deal in place. Even leaving with a trade deal is going to be a huge challenge and is, for all intent and purposes, out of the question. Coronavirus has put paid to that. Yesterday I said that the hit to public finances will be at least as great as the 2008-9 financial crisis and today The Telegraph has published a similarly apocalyptic prediction.
"The economy could “easily” contract in the coming weeks by as much as it did in more than a year during the financial crisis, a senior forecaster has warned.
"As ministers were being urged to do more to help businesses survive the coronavirus, Julian Jessop, an independent economist, said a 6pc drop in GDP or 'even worse' in just one quarter can be expected."
Without minimising the impact the pandemic will have on the population itself, I think we can take it as read that coronavirus will deliver a massive blow to the public finances. A no-deal Brexit in 2021 will do the same but is entirely in the gift - if that's the right word - of Brexit Johnson who was still insisting last week that it will go ahead regardless.
This would be like stepping out of a big train crash and immediately throwing yourself under a passing bus. I don;t believe even the PM is that insane, although he comes close. In fact the longer he delays a decision the stupider he is going to look.
If he does not ask to extend the transition period (and I think this is really his only choice), the next available option is to seek the softest possible Brexit which would mean accepting the EU's proposed FTA in every detail. I cannot see The Treasury or business advising anything else.
In 2021 industry will be picking itself up and trying to get back to some sort of normality so disrupting supply chains and upending the trading relationship with our nearest neighbours would simply knock it back down again. Nobody - except perhaps Bill Cash or IDS - will thank the government for delivering a home-brewed disaster on top of a catastrophe.
No, put any idea of the UK leaving the EU fully in December out of your mind. It ain't going to happen.
Another forecast I made on Friday last week is that Trump's exemption of the UK and Ireland from his European travel ban wouldn't last long. It didn't: Trump added travellers from both countries to the continent wide ban yesterday. It begins midnight EST on Monday. This is a lucrative route for BA and Virgin Atlantic so they and other airlines are going to suffer a huge drop in income.
And the EASA decision is starting to have an impact already with UK pilots being told on Friday they will not be able to fly an aircraft with an EASA Certificate of Airworthiness from 8 April 2020.
"The CAA has today issued an alert saying this privilege will cease on that day.
" 'UK national private pilot licence holders are not able to fly an aeroplane with an EASA certificate of airworthiness from 8 April 2020 due to a European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) derogation expiring on 7 April and not being renewed,' says the CAA alert."
British pilots will now have to seek a licence validation from any EASA Competent Authority or carry out a State of Licence Issue transfer before the end of the transition period. This means transferring their licences and medicals from the UK to another EASA member state prior to December. More trouble and costs.
Flight Global, described as the global aviation community’s primary source of news, data, insight, knowledge and expertise has a hard-hitting opinion piece by the magazine Flight International. They say that leaving the EASA is not in the UK's national interest.
"The UK Department for Transport argues that continued membership of EASA 'is not compatible with the UK having genuine economic and political independence'.
"While it is futile to replay the arguments for and against Brexit itself, it would appear that the government interprets that new-found 'political independence' as a right to make its own catastrophic decisions."
The EASA story has a long way to run yet.
Brexit Johnson is besieged on all fronts at the moment. More than 200 scientists are not happy with his response to the pandemic and have written to the government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19. Their open letter accuses mimisters of putting the public at risk:
"Going for 'herd immunity' at this point does not seem a viable option, as this will put NHS at an even stronger level of stress, risking many more lives than necessary"
Brexit Johnson is coming under constant attack from all quarters and it is only going to get worse. The narcissist only wants praise and adulation but he is not going to get either for a very long time, if ever again.
Most of the problems, not coronavirus of course, although his response to that has looked tardy, are of his own making and PMs who attract difficulties and bad news stories tend not to last very long - as John Major discovered.
We can only hope Johnson goes sooner rather than later.
Most of the problems, not coronavirus of course, although his response to that has looked tardy, are of his own making and PMs who attract difficulties and bad news stories tend not to last very long - as John Major discovered.
We can only hope Johnson goes sooner rather than later.
