Monday 16 March 2020

Matthew Elliot: don't worry about the pandemic, Brexit is the important thing

Matthew Elliot was the CEO of Vote Leave, the official campaign for Brexit in the referendum. He's now political adviser to Shore Capital, one of those mysterious (to me) 'asset management' groups. Looking back he was the perfect choice for those who wanted to leave the EU. He didn't care what methods were used and, like the campaign director, Dominic Cummings believed the end justified the means. I mention him now because he was on the Andrew Marr show yesterday.

We can get an idea of the lengths such a man was prepared to go in 2016 by his suggestion yesterday that the trade talks with the EU should carry on despite the coronavirus pandemic:
He doesn't acknowledge the massive impact the pandemic is going to have on this country, and seems to think Frost and Barnier can carry on using Skype. I am sure this is possible but is it desirable to have central and local government and industry managing what looks increasing like a national emergency while trying to negotiate our future relationship with the EU?  Well, for him the answer clearly is, yes.

To Elliot, a world wide pandemic, an outbreak of Bubonic plague or even presumably a meteorite strike on the Yucutan peninsula plunging us into perpetual winter are mere distractions from the main event. Does anyone think, against this mindset, that the odd lie, misuse of data or illegal overspending would have stopped him? Of course not. It's like accusing Adolph Hitler or Pol Pot of conspiracy to commit a minor assault. The death of a few million people for Elliot is not just a price worth paying, it's not even expensive. No wonder we lost.

Anybody prepared to gather a series of like-minded nutters to help him co-author a massive 1032 page tome on why Brexit was both necessary and bound to be a success is not to be trifled with. He did this in 2015, almost a year before the referendum. The writing was on the wall but we didn't see it. You wouldn't put anything past Matthew Elliot. Next time we should be better prepared.

Needless to say, none of the promised benefits have yet materialised and nor are they likely to. Every backward step, every negative consequence, every forecast of dire economic meltdown is still met either with a charge of scaremongering or a that it's just a minor detour on the way to Utopia. When they won't do, it's something that everybody was perfectly aware of when they went into the polling booth in June 2016 and hence easily discountable. Nothing must stand in the way of his life-long obsession.

And anyway it's all about sovereignty isn't it? Turning the nation into the wastes of Hell in exchange is fine.

Daniel Hannan was the man who told us in 2016 that "absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market".  Poor old Dan, he wasn't in the loop was he?  This was before Theresa May confirmed we would indeed be leaving the single market and the customs union and now Johnson has added every other EU body as well. In fact we are now out of anything with European in the title.  Brexiteers claim everybody knew that Brexit meant just that. Everybody, that is except Daniel Hannan apparently.

After making such a spectacularly wrong declaration you would think he would have retired to well earned obscurity, but no he continues to write columns and people pay for the pleasure.

On February 19th this year, professor Hannan gave readers of Conservative Home the benefit of his forecasting skills once again, telling them he was going to 'stick his neck out':

"You’re unlikely to be killed by the coronavirus. Yes, the disease is unpleasant; and, yes, in some circumstances, it can cause complications that lead to fatalities. But it is unlikely to be as lethal as the more common forms of influenza that we take for granted, let alone as lethal as, say, stroke or heart disease. We are nowhere near a 1919-style global catastrophe."

He even had the chutzpah to criticise the writers of sensational headlines:

"You might think that that experience [H5N1 bird flu in 2005] would have chastened the headline writers. But when the swine ’flu outbreak came three years later, it was reported in exactly the same apocalyptic tone.

 “Killer swine flu, UK on alert” was the Sunday Times lead on 26 April 2009. Three days later, the Daily Mail’s front page announced: “Hundreds will be ill in weeks and a swine flu pandemic could strike 40 per cent of us”.

No, they weren't 'chastened' but then again neither was Hannan from his 2016 experience either.

This is the problem with most Brexiteers isn't it. They aren't swayed by experience, hard evidence or their own eyes. They just know they're right. Even when they're wrong.

Coronavirus

There was an interesting tweet about the government's approach to the pandemic with this:
The suggestion is our CMO is working on the false assumption that in Wuhan province in China, where the first outbreak occurred, there is now 20% herd immunity. The tweeter says this is false and in fact it's only 5%.  The working assumption that herd immunity contributed to bringing the disease under control is, so it's claimed, a false one and social distancing has played the major role.  I don't know if this is right or not but it may account for the UK being the odd man out.

Finally, I wanted to point out that the Johnson's are not the only celebrity family which is riven by Brexit. The Lawsons are as well. Here's a tweet from Nigella who clearly has a different opinion to her famous father and brother:
Nigel and Dominic are both take-back-controllers. I wonder if she had them in mind?
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