As the coronavirus pandemic spirals and we all sit inside our homes watching the near constant TV coverage from across the world it's easy to forget Brexit - and perhaps in any normal world it would be forgotten temporarily. But the government continues to keep up the pretence that we will exit the transition period at the end of the year. The PM's spokesman only yesterday telling Reuters, "The transition period ends on the 31st of December, 2020, this is enshrined in UK law."
This followed a video conference meeting between the two side headed up by European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič for the EU and Michael Gove for the UK. Afterwards the EU issued a statement, which you can read HERE. The important parts are these:
"There is an urgent need to present a detailed timetable and proceed with the necessary measures, such as preparing for the introduction of customs procedures for goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain, and ensuring that all necessary sanitary and phytosanitary controls as well as other regulatory checks can be carried out in respect of goods entering Northern Ireland from outside the EU."
"Both parties agreed that clear, reliable answers are key to allowing businesses to prepare for change, to address the challenges, and to seize the opportunities, of the Protocol. Providing such answers to businesses cannot wait."
The EU were obviously not impressed with various statements made by Johnson and Brandon Lewis about there being no border down the Irish sea.
In contrast to the EU, which has published a comprehensive and detailed 440 page draft for discussion, the UK has only provided the Commission with four skeleton documents and prohibited the sharing of them with member states. And since they are not public, we can't see what our own government is proposing.
The EU document is frighteningly professional. It could easily be the final agreement - as it probably will be. They are using our own ticking clock against us.
As The Guardian reported a few days ago:
"Despite Downing Street’s public insistence that a similarly comprehensive text would be tabled earlier this month, EU sources said the UK had tabled only four documents covering trade, transport, aviation and nuclear cooperation. London has not tabled legal text on significant issues including security cooperation or fisheries, and nor has it made its texts public.
"EU sources also said the UK’s positions in the texts were in a 'different galaxy' to those of Brussels.
"EU sources also said the UK’s positions in the texts were in a 'different galaxy' to those of Brussels.
"'The first big difference is that we have a fully fledged proposal in line with the political declaration while the Brits have only tabled a few things, much less than we expected', one senior EU diplomat said. 'The scope is much narrower than we had thought it would have been and that makes it difficult to work with. That’s the basic problem'."
I confess I admire the EU's self control. We must be easily the most difficult partner to negotiate with. On the other hand our approach can only reinforce their sense that Brexit is not only a huge mistake, it is being handled in a spectacularly inept way by imbeciles. And this is notwithstanding the coronavirus pandemic.
The tweets by Nick Gutteridge that I posted a link to recently sets out the problem:
UK has tabled 4 texts so far outlining separate proposed agreements on an FTA, aviation, transport, and civil nuclear. This leaves further texts to cover areas like fishing, energy, law and order, immigration and social security, and participation in EU programmes outstanding.
Britain wants these to comprise a 'suite' of deals each with its own separate governance system. In contrast, the EU has put forward one all-encompassing text which houses all these issues, plus security, defence, and foreign policy cooperation, within one single agreement.
This contrast in approach belies the two sides' different visions for how the relationship will work. EU officials and diplomats insist little progress can be made until the UK tables a more complete offer. The absence of a proposal on fishing has caused particular alarm.
In their eyes the UK is trying to split off the areas which are most in its own interest and railroad the EU into making maximum progress on those first. Fishing exemplifies this - the EU insists it has to be linked to a trade deal, whereas the UK says it's a separate issue.
As one EU source sums it up: 'We're not going to go along with progress only in the areas where there are two texts. That would mean the negotiation being fully framed by UK interests. The situation basically means everything is sort of halted.'
So, do not think it is only coronavirus which has prevented the talks going further. They would have stopped anyway because of the confrontational approach we're taking. We are still pressing for a series of separate deals which are not linked in any way. This will never succeed. The EU are implacably opposed to doing something akin to the Swiss model that they are at the moment trying to get Switzerland to drop. It makes no sense to continue to ask for it.
"Another major complaint from EU capitals is that the UK is not only refusing to publish its draft texts, but won't even let the Commission share them with Member States. One diplomatic source reckons this secrecy will hinder the progress of the talks as much as anything else."
I find this particularly hard to understand. We began the whole Brexit process in 2016-17 by undertaking a series of diplomatic meetings with member states, trying to by-pass the Commission altogether. Now we are insisting on negotiating ONLY with the Commission and excluding the member states.
If this doesn't give a clue to the weak position we are in, nothing will. This is what a supplicant does. He tries every possible gambit that might give him a little bit more leverage. But it is bound to fail. We need them more that they need us. This was always true and always will be true.
The EPP (European People's Party), the largest single group in the European Parliament has issued a statement calling on the UK to request an extension:
“Under these extraordinary circumstances, I cannot see how the UK Government would choose to expose itself to the double whammy of the Coronavirus and the exit from the EU Single Market, which will inevitably add to the disruption, deal or no deal. I can only hope that common sense and substance will prevail over ideology. An extension of the transition period is the only responsible thing to do”, said Christophe Hansen MEP, negotiator of the post-Brexit agreement in the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade, ahead of the first meeting of the EU-UK Joint Committee, a body set up to oversee the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement.
At the moment common sense is fighting a losing battle over ideology but it will prevail in the end because it always does, doesn't it.
Coronavirus
On the pandemic, the UK figures seem to indicate a slowing down of the mortality rate. Only (only!) 180 people died on Sunday although the number of cases increased again to 2,619. The number of people tested crept up to 7,209.
On Newsnight last night, Nick Watt suggested the ONS (Office for National Statistics) will be taking over responsibility for publishing weekly totals - which will include deaths from the virus away from hospitals. Official figures given out so far only cover deaths which occur in a hospital. How this will impact the numbers I really don't know.
I do see a growing scepticism that the figures are accurate, especially as they seem to show the measures introduced only about ten days ago are having an almost immediate impact. Something not seen in Italy or Spain.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the Chief Scientific Adviser, seems to expect the numbers to grow significantly so we wait to see what happens.
Keep safe.
