As the coronavirus death toll continues to rise, the chaos and confusion inside government is laid bare this morning on the question of procuring ventilators. The Today programme this morning had Simon Jack, the BBC's industrial correspondent, telling listeners (HERE 07:10 am) that the Department of Health didn't even know about an order for 10,000 ventilators placed by the cabinet office on Dyson a few days ago. This was part of an item about various consortia and even the Mercedes F1 team gearing up to produce ventilators. The whole thing looks completely shambolic.
The weeks of dither are starting to have a real impact. Jack says we have 8,000 ventilators now and need another 22,000 but with the peak demand expected around April 12th there is no way that any of the groups pitching to supply ventilators will get to that number in time. Mercedes say their design, based on an existing approved unit, can be made at the rate of about 1,000 per week. Despite all the last minute panic, we look as if we will be woefully short when the peak arrives - and for a long time afterwards.
This matters. As we learned from The Telegraph there will have to be some rationing and they quote a 'senior consultant who says:
"As we learn more about the disease, we are being much more careful about which patients are being considered for critical care. In normal times we will give most people the benefit of the doubt. That has changed.
"With this infection you need a couple of weeks on a ventilator, so with resources being used for such a long time, you have to be reasonably certain the person is going to get better.
"Delaying their death for two or three weeks is not the right thing for them or for society."
In other words, the less you look like you're going to survive, the lower the chances of getting critical care and, I assume, ventilating.
Some people will be paying the ultimate price for the weeks of inertia and Johnson's relentless focus on Brexit when he should have been paying attention to coronavirus.
The latest figures show another jump in deaths (+210) and confirmed cases (+2424) while the number of tests again failed to get above 7,000.
Trump is not going to come out of the pandemic well either. This video shows the growth in confirmed cases over time between 2nd and 27th of March. If you are an American it might be quite disturbing. Lat night's figures puts the US even further ahead.
The FT are publishing the latest facts and figures on coronavirus in front of the normal paywall, Read it HERE.
Whatever the next few weeks and months brings and there will be a lot of heartache, tears and soul searching, coronavirus will eventually be defeated, probably by mass vaccination and we will be able to get back to something like normality. But we will face a huge bill and of course, Brexit.
The Sunday Times carried an article yesterday (HERE no£) by Tim Shipman and Caroline Wheeler about the need to extend the transition. Almost two thirds (64%) of the public think it should be extended according to a poll. The article says:
"Johnson’s team continued to insist on Friday that the December 31 deadline remained and senior sources said there was 'no way' that the prime minister would consider a delay.
"Senior civil servants think that will have to change. A Whitehall source said: “There is no one in Whitehall working on Brexit. The civil servants have either been sent home or have been redeployed to work on the coronavirus. No one will say it explicitly, but there is zero expectation that we will leave on December 31. The work on a variety of vital areas just hasn’t been done and I can’t see that changing for the foreseeable future."
The real question is how long are we going to extend for? Another short extension that may need to be extended again would look particularly stupid. And overlaying trade barriers on a shattered economy does not seem either wise or likely. I expect we will extend for the full two years.
And make no mistake, the economy will be in no state to negotiate a hard Brexit.
An article on the Politico website (HERE) sets out what it calls Johnson's tax trap. He came to office with a plan to revitalise the economy - hoping to lead the U.K. into the post-Brexit era with increased public spending fueled by higher borrowing, but will instead find himself balancing the books after a deep economic shock. It goes on:
"At the same time, the imperative to balance the books and ensure sound government finances will be greater than ever in a post-pandemic world where the U.K.’s vulnerability to sudden, unexpected economic crises and the need to save for a rainy day will be more obvious than ever."
So, the author claims he will be forced to raise taxes. And it quotes Mike Brewer, deputy chief executive of Resolution Foundation:
“This is a world away from what small-state conservatives would have imagined they’d be overseeing in government"
Johnson's post pandemic government will have difficulty righting the ship and will be focused on managing a fragile economy. It will look far more socialist than Gordon Brown's. Brexit will have to go on the back burner for a long time.
Of course, not all economists agree. Some think we will have to borrow more and more. The BBC's Faisal Islam looks at the problem as he asks where the money is going to come from and suggests we may have to resort to printing money - although the BoE would do it electronically by "buying UK government bonds directly from the Treasury".
The markets have already downgraded our credit rating and may not be entirely happy with this. Islam says:
"All the while, international investors are rushing to buy dollars. These events have distracted the traditional customers for government debt - lending cash to the Treasury - who are now far from guaranteed to be at the table. Indeed, the auctions of even some short-term UK government borrowing suggest a lack of demand in recent days."
It is not impossible and probably highly likely that the global pandemic crisis will be followed by a financial one. Brexit may next year look like an expense we can do without.
