Carry on regardless, with captain Johnson on the bridge

The government still has its head in the sand on the question of extending the transition period. The Trade Bill was published yesterday as though coronavirus was no more than a slight itch and No 10 denied once again that we are about to request an extension. I think there is some sort of diplomatic process under way so that it doesn't appear the UK is having to ask for a delay. The price of face has never been so expensive.  But the reality is that an extension there must be.

Johnson gave another of his breezily optimistic press conferences where he talked about "turning the tide" on coronavirus. He was going to "send it packing" (what is it about the idiot and three word, four syllable slogans?) in just 12 weeks. So much totally unfounded confidence. If Captain Johnson had been on the bridge of the Titanic in April 2012 you feel the iceberg would have sunk and left the ship to continue its journey unscathed.

Asked by one of the journalists present what turning the tide actually meant, he haltingly explained it meant "getting on top of it" thus breaking the pattern and employing a five word, six syllable answer which added nothing to what little we already knew. It was longer, that was all. The journalists must have been as baffled as everyone else. The BBC have a nice two minute clip of it all HERE. It was not very convincing.

I suppose if anyone had asked what "getting on top of it" meant we would have got yet another meaningless phrase. Thankfully nobody did. Otherwise some of us would have lost the will to live.

Getting facts out of the PM can be compared to waiting for Godot. You feel a fact is just about to emerge or that somewhere in the stream of journalistic bloviation pouring from Johnson there could be an odd fact to chew on.  Finding one is that eureka moment like discovering a piece of meat in a cheap steak and kidney pie. Unfortunately, yesterday was not such an occasion.

You can take the prime minister out of journalism but you can't take the journalist out if the prime minister. Big bold statements is all you get with nothing to back it up.

I note the experts flanking the idiot didn't confirm the 12 week timescale and even Johnson backtracked on it within minutes. He couldn't be sure and anyway it didn't depend on him, it depended on us following his advice. We can now see where the blame is headed.

And am I alone in thinking his pronunciation is becoming ever more grand? His weekly meetings with The Queen must be doing it. He will soon sound like Brian Sewell or Bob Danvers-Walker or perhaps one side of a Two Ronnies sketch where words like crown and town come out like crine and tine. When I first heard about getting Brexit 'Dan' I thought he was calling for Daniel Hannan until I saw the slogan written down. In Nottingham, we use to think people like him were from another planet where everybody was born with a speech impediment.

Michel Barnier tested positive for Covid-19 yesterday and I assume at his age (69) it could be serious. Foreign Secretary Rabb was told about it when he appeared before the Foreign Affairs Select Committee yesterday morning. Graham Stringer MP (Labour, Blackley) asked Raab if the transition period was going to be extended beyond December in the light of the global pandemic No, was the roundabout answer which you might want to hear in the short clip below.

Raab apparently had no sympathy for the people who will die or the companies that will not survive the crisis. He warned it [Brexit in December] would be 'challenging' for those businesses which survive the financial maelstrom. I think they will probably be wrestling with the aftermath of Covid-19 for the rest of the year - at least. He said they had had time to prepare, sounding like a stern schoolmaster with no time for slackers. The Political Declaration and the recently published negotiating texts (mandates) aiming for a "best-in-class trade deal" gave industry a good 'steer' as to what is needed after December 31st.

This will infuriate businesses, especially those in NI, who still don't know what is expected of them. They are crying out for details and certainty and are offered a 'steer' to work with.

Jennifer Rankin, The Guardian's Brussels correspondent was more realistic. She says pressure is growing to delay Brexit and she quotes Terry Reintke, a German MEP for The Green Party who told her it was “absolutely insane” to stick to the original timetable.

“I don’t think it’s going to be possible. I really hope the British government and the British parliament will come to their senses.”

"She [Ms Reintke] added that a deal was not just “people meeting in a room”, but time for parliamentary scrutiny, informed by experts. The European parliament, which has to approve the final deal, has drastically reduced its activity, with many MEPs unable to leave their home countries".

Of course Johnson has the advantage here. The UK has no real parliamentary scrutiny and as for being informed by experts - don't make me laugh.  Johnson is playing Henry VIII and he can do as he likes without restraint and yes, he might well be 'absolutely insane'. And we thought it was the EU that was supposed to be undemocratic.

Schools

Overnight the government has published a list of all the occupations critical for the Covid-19 response and the workers whose children will remain in school. The list is quite a long one and includes all key public services (justice, etc) local government (benefits offices, agencies, etc), food processing and distribution, public safety and national security, transport, utilities and financial services.

It looks like half the population are 'front-line' workers.  Who knew?

The economy

The BoE must be looking at some worrying figures. It reduced interest rates yet again yesterday from 0.25% to 0.1% thus firing almost the last round from the monetary policy gun, unless it went off accidentally after the governor waved it around in  a panic. This is the second cut in a week. The next step would be to reduce interest rates to zero and after that to pay people to borrow money - as Japan has done since 2016. For four years interest rates in Japan have been negative. Companies effectively have been paid  to borrow money but the result is that it has had zero stimulating effect on growth.

Central Banks do not do these kind of things lightly. Be in no doubt a real storm is coming and I am afraid Captain Johnson is on the bridge. Confident? No, me neither.