Thursday 19 March 2020

Schools to close and coronavirus sinks the pound

Even with the limited amount of testing being done, the coronavirus numbers shot up by nearly 700 new cases yesterday and deaths rose to 105. At his daily press conference Johnson had a haunted look about him. The hacks gathered together in No 10 gave him an easy ride but when the figures really start to get into the thousands of new cases daily he is sure to get roughed up and he will be tested like he has never been tested before in his whole life.

I don't know what's wrong with Johnson these days but apart from looking out of his depth, he stands there slack jawed alternating between shifty-eyed and aimlessly staring into space while others are speaking. At one point his mouth hung open like a fish and he seemed totally unaware of what was going on around him. Is he alright I wonder?

Reality finally penetrated his thick skull and schools will now 'close' from Friday until further notice for all pupils except those of 'front line' workers needed to fight Coronavirus. They can't take time off to look after their children who will continue at svhool. In the same press conference he also said he won't extend the transition period beyond December, as Lewis Goodall tweeted:
He even joked about this with his trademark smirk and refused to use the 'B' word. In the middle of an unprecedented global crisis threatening the death of millions he can't take it seriously. God knows what he's like away from the cameras.

Just as he was forced to face facts on schools so he will have to do on extending the transition. If he doesn't realise it now he should be removed from office and placed in care for his and our safety.

There is now a debate going on about what a 'front-line' worker is. Some think in addition to health and social care, delivery drivers should also be included and food industry workers, what about them?  Gavin Williamson is on the Today programme as I type this post being asked to define what a 'key' worker is. He says the cabinet office will define it. I think most schools will actually remain open, albeit with very much smaller pupil numbers.

Richard Horton, the Lancet editor whose tweet I posted about yesterday has been given space in The Guardian to attack the government's handling of the pandemic and he made good use of it:- 

"Many journalists, led by the BBC, reported that “the science had changed” and so the government had responded accordingly. But this interpretation of events is wrong. The science has been the same since January. What changed is that government advisers at last understood what had really taken place in China."

Horton half defends Whitty, the CMO and Sir Patrick Vallance, Chief Scientific Adviser, and calls it a collective failure. Whoever it is aimed at, his accusation is that two vital months have been wasted faffing about with a herd immunity strategy. The government was told on Monday that unless it changed course the death toll in this country could reach 250,000. Horton puts it as high as 400,000. As it is they are now hoping to keep it to about 20,000. 

If Britain performs worse in terms of infections and deaths than other European or Asian countries, Johnson will be toast.  There is bound to be a public inquiry and we will certainly learn how it all went wrong and I don't believe the civil service will be inclined to defend ministers.

 Panic buying

On Monday I am told that Aldi in Selby was jam packed at 10:30 in the morning with huge queues at the check outs. Time slots for home delivery on Morrisons or Tesco is being pushed out to the 8th and 9th of April.  The BBC showed a supermarket in London at 6:30 in the morning with a massive queue to get IN!. This is when we are constantly reassured there is no shortage of stuff.

If we leave the EU abruptly without a deal in place and shortages become an everyday reality it will be carnage.  Johnson should take note.

Italy, I note has no panic buying despite being in a far worse position.

Extending the Transition
On Tuesday, Peter Foster tweeted a link to his Telegraph article claiming that the EU and UK have already accepted there will have to be a delay to the transition period with only the formal announcement to be decided to make sure there is no loss of face. I assume the decision has been taken by Cummings who forget to inform the PM before he faced the world's press.
Apparently, two Whitehall Director-Generals (the rank below Permanent Secretary) who were working on the Brexit negotiations have already been shifted to coronavirus duties and the cabinet committees on both the EU and US trade talks have been stood down. This was all perfectly foreseeable to most people a few days ago, except the PM, Raab and David Davis.

Raab was accused of 'reckless insanity' for suggesting the negotiations should continue:-

"I don’t think delaying the Brexit negotiations would give anyone on either side of the Channel the certainty they need,” he argued.

David Davis, who is recklessly insane anyway, told the FT there is “no reason" to extend due to coronavirus and that “The unfortunate Covid-19 events will mean that cross-border traffic will be depressed and customs will be more than able to handle the traffic.”

See what I mean?

Sterling

We are always being told by Brexiteers the euro is on the verge of collapse. They would love to see such an outcome, so it's very strange that in the present crisis sterling has slumped against both the euro and the dollar. It's clear the markets don't share the Brexiteers view.  At 11:33 yesterday morning, Thomas Cole, a political analyst at City University of London, was sufficiently alarmed to tweet:
It says something that the slide continued through the day and last night the pound closed at  €1.067 (-2.71%) and $1.1545 (-4.28%). We are rushing to parity with both currencies but given the coronavirus pandemic it didn't even make the early evening news. Later BBC bulletins did say it had hit a 30 year low.

Paul Jackson of Invesco is quoted by the FT saying, "If you are already weakened by a underlying condition (Brexit in the case of Sterling) then the risks are greater".

Sounds a bit like coronavirus has hit the pound and it will soon need intensive care.
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