A letter from Johnson (read it HERE) is on its way to every household in Britain telling us that things will get worse before they get better. I think we already know that. Things got worse yesterday as the coronavirus death toll exceeded a thousand. Before the week is out it will probably be close to four thousand and still rising. The week after it will be touching twenty thousand. We are entering the key phase. The letter is a softening up for more bad news.
In a fortnight we will learn if the lockdown measures are working or not. The coronavirus pandemic is about to become palpable.
The Daily Telegraph yesterday (no£) played up a rather reassuring report from Imperial College suggesting the death toll, far from the 20,000 predicted by the CMO last week, may not get above 5700. It also claimed the "daily toll of deaths may not exceed 250". This was unfortunate timing to say the least: 260 victims died yesterday bringing the total to 1,019.
The number of tests carried out slumped to 6,999 (from 8,911 yesterday) and the number of new confirmed infections rose by 2,536 to 17,089. There is no sign of a slowing down.
Only when the rate of new infections starts to show a decrease will the government's handling of the pandemic be vindicated, at least in part. If it doesn't do so in the next two weeks, we are in big trouble.
The Imperial college report and leaks to James Forsyth of the Spectator (probably from Cummings since he and Forsyth are close) are playing down the pandemic, while MI6 Rogue tweets:
I will #Leak this to you after the day I have had. Dominic Cummings is now "advising" the PM that he should release the country from the #lockdownuk ASAP as he has figures that apparently prove the majority that will die from #covid19UK would off died within 24 months anyway. pic.twitter.com/FmOtyTVxMU— MI6 Rogue 🇬🇧 (@mi6rogue) March 28, 2020
It looks like Cummings sees a few thousand of us old 'uns as expendable in his quest to change Britain irreversibly.
The newly infected and the death toll are not the only rising numbers. The Tories are on 54% - up 9% on December's election according to a new poll. "No Conservative government has ever had such a strong poll rating" say Bloomberg. Fully 72% are satisfied with Johson's handling of the crisis. If that doesn't surprise you, you are probably unshockable.
The party that has given us ten years of austerity and through Brexit, is planning another ten at least is currently 26% ahead of the Labour party. Where is the justice?
Robert Peston focuses on the rate of increase of cases as announced by Michael Gove on Friday. Gove talked of a doubling every 3-4 days, significantly faster than the 5 days originally forecast and the 4.3 days used by Professor Neil Ferguson on March 17th.
Peston also calculates more than one million people are already infected using the same one death per thousand infections as Jeremy Hunt used in the House of Commons last Monday to forecast the spread of the virus. He and Hunt both arrive at the same figure.
With this in mind, one can see why the government is pressing ahead in preparing for a substantial increase in cases over the coming weeks with several 'mega' hospitals being hastily set up in exhibition centres. Exel in London (4,000 beds), the NEC in Birmingham (5,000 beds) and G Mex in Manchester are being fitted out with beds and oxygen supplies. I pray that nobody I know ends up in one of these places. It must be a terrible way to die, as many will do.
On the ventilators, we learn from Trump that in a recent 'phone conversation, the first thing Johnson pleaded for was ventilators. Having declined to join the EU procurement scheme, global Britain is reduced to begging Trump for ventilators. The man whose election pledge was to put America first is being asked to show some altruism. Don't hold your breath for ventilators are anything else for that matter. I suppose we should look forward to more of this, Johnson shuffling up Pennsylvania Avenue unshaven and scruffy in shabby clothes and wearing shoes with holes in, rattling a begging bowl only to be refused.
Brexit
Still in the background, waiting for a crisis of its own, is Brexit of course. The Express report Sir John Redwood claiming we have already 'won the first round' over the EU on fishing. Meanwhile, The Sun says the two sides are ‘galaxies apart’ on Brexit as a 'major row erupts over fishing'. Make of it what you will.
For a more measured look at the state of play, this article in Thursday's Guardian is more useful and a Twitter thread by Nick Gutteridge, a Brussels reporter, is also helpful. The Guardian first:
"EU sources also said the UK’s positions in the texts were in a “different galaxy” to those of Brussels.
"The first big difference is that we have a fully fledged proposal in line with the political declaration while the Brits have only tabled a few things, much less than we expected”, one senior EU diplomat said. “The scope is much narrower than we had thought it would have been and that makes it difficult to work with. That’s the basic problem.”
"Officials on both sides are also struggling to find a way to get negotiations going, with plans for talks in London and Brussels now abandoned given the Covid-19 crisis.
"UK officials said the legal text covering the outstanding areas would be produced at a time of the British government’s choosing, and attempts to find a new method of 'continuous dialogue' were being made."
Gutteridge says:
"As one EU source sums it up: 'We're not going to go along with progress only in the areas where there are two texts. That would mean the negotiation being fully framed by UK interests. The situation basically means everything is sort of halted'."
Essentially then we are still someway short of reality and nothing is happening, the two sides are at stalemate even before the talks really get going.
An article in Die Welt (in German I'm afraid but translated by Google!) includes a quote from John Longworth but also makes clear the EU still see Johnson folding sooner or later:
"The hardliners in the ranks of the Tories, however, see the Corona crisis as an advantage for the British. “In view of the foreseeable economic crisis, the EU will desperately want to conclude a trade agreement with the United Kingdom. It gives us a golden opportunity, ”said John Longworth, ex-chief of the British Chamber of Commerce.
"Johnson's own parliament also questions that he wants a quick deal with the Europeans. In a report, the House of Lords' EU committee concludes that London is taking an increasingly tough line.
“The government has so far failed to show that it wants to compromise on common fair competition rules. The Brexit project in the highest Tory party circles is still driven by Thatcher fans, ”said Lord Wood in an interview with WELT.
"In Brussels, it is still assumed that Johnson will ultimately change his approach. "I see no other option than for the British to extend the transition period," says an EU official who is familiar with the negotiations. Which would suit the British prime minister, who is well known for his political flexibility."
