Tuesday 17 March 2020

Unprecedented times

I think it's become clear this morning that Brexit is about to fade into the background. The transition period will have to be extended indefinitely and the focus of the government, like every other government around the world, will need to be 100% on managing the pandemic which is going to lead to a severe financial crisis, probably the worst in living memory. It is our bad luck that we have ended up with a PM and cabinet who are perhaps the least suited ever to leading us out of such a crisis.  Life may not return to normal for a very long time, if ever.

Perhaps the most amazing thing in the last 24 hours is the report by Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team that essentially we have been pursing the wrong strategy for the firsr few vital weeks. Buzzfeed covered the story first HERE.

"In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days," the report explained, due to new data on likely intensive care unit demand based on the experience of Italy and Britain so far.

"We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that," professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial, told journalists at a briefing on Monday night.

Brexit Johnson can hardly be blamed for that but he could and should have questioned why we were so out of step with other countries.  The NHS is going to be under the kind of strain that it has never had to cope with in its entire history. If, like me, you are elderly and don't have coronavirus at the moment, self-isolation is the best advice. Hunker down and keep social contact to an absolute minimum to reduce the risk of infection. In the coming weeks getting emergency care may become a lottery.

Businesses are fuming that Johnson yesterday did not order bars, restaurants, cinemas, theatres and the like to be closed. He only advised people not to use them, which means they are unable to claim on insurance. Many will not survive.  In France, Macron has been much more decisive and has said no business, small or large will be allowed to go bust.  We will have to offer far more support to businesses in distress - and there will be an awful lot of them.

At the turn of the millenium, our national debt was about 40% of GDP. The 2008-9 financial crisis has doubled that and in the next couple of years was forecast to exceed £2 Trillion - even before the pandemic hit. 

By the time we are out of the woods one can easily see debt doubling again.  Sunak's hair will soon be prematurely grey.

Peter Foster tweeted on the gloomy report from Make UK (used to be the Engineering Employers Federation) about the state of the economy at the moment.
It does not make happy reading even if you neglect coronavirus and I am afraid perhaps we will never be able to do that again.

We are living in unprecedented times.
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