We should probably begin to list the number of leading British politicians who keep suggesting the transition period will not be extended beyond the end of December. Rishi Sunak is the latest. The Daily Express report it with the usual jingoistic overtones and they suggest the very idea sent EU leaders into a "panic". And in case Barnier didn't quite get it during their teleconference on Wednesday, lead negotiator David Frost tweeted about it:
It was 'liked' by Steve Baker, presumably from a padded cell somewhere in southern England and clearly in the pay of a foreign power. My bet is it's Valdimir Putin.— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) April 16, 2020
As we prepare for the next Rounds of negotiations, I want to reiterate the Government's position on the transition period created following our withdrawal from the EU.
Transition ends on 31 December this year.
We will not ask to extend it. If the EU asks we will say no. 1/2
Frost added:
"Extending would simply prolong negotiations, create even more uncertainty, leave us liable to pay more to the EU in future, and keep us bound by evolving EU laws at a time when we need to control our own affairs. In short, it is not in the UK's interest to extend."
Despite all of this macho stuff I continue to be 100% confident we will ask for an extension, It is all bluff. Either there will be the absolute mother of all U turns or I am going to look like a complete fool.
Anybody who thinks NOT getting an extension will create more uncertainty is in need of counselling. And if Frost believes negotiations will NOT be prolonged in any case with or without an extension he is in the wrong business.
We will see what happens when the clock ticks down towards the end of June when a decision must be made. Pressure and protests from industry will grow ever louder and more insistent. The economy is set to suffer its biggest shock from the coronavirus lockdown and for many manufacturers it may prove to be the final straw. If we do not get an extension, the second half of the year will be a watershed moment in British history. The stakes could not be higher.
In a way we old remainers ought to be pleased that Johnson and his reckless cohorts are pursuing a policy which can only be described as insane. Brexit will get a bad name anyway but Brexit from January will pile on the agony the British people will suffer.
All that Brussels has to do is - nothing at all. If they do not ask for a transition they will gain more industry both financial and manufacturing than they ever thought possible. And the Conservative party will be out of office until the next century at least. It will come at an immense cost to this country and our children and grandchildren but it will be worth every penny in the long run.
There can only be five possible outcomes in the next eight weeks or so:
- We do a humiliating climb down and ask for an extension
- Brussels asks and is humiliated by being rejected
- Brussels asks and is humiliated by being accepted
- No extension is requested by either side and a deal is quickly cobbled together
- No extension is agreed and we leave in December on WTO terms
The only realistic options are 1 and 4. But if a deal is agreed at the eleventh hour as it was last year in the Withdrawal Agreement it will be a bad deal for Britain, British industry, finance and farming.
The EU are not going to offer us a sweetener or any of the things we want and need desperately. The government itself is totally unprepared. There is no infrastructure being built, no great recruitment drive for border or customs officials or vets. No government information campaign to ready exporters and importers for the shock. Meanwhile, the nation reels from the rising death toll and looks forward to another three weeks of lockdown at least, followed by a very gradual lifting of some of the restrictions. The economy will not be back to normal until the end of 2021 at the earliest.
Civil servants who were planning our post Brexit future have been shifted on to fighting Covid-19 and getting schemes up and running to support companies in danger of collapse. It must be mayhem in Whitehall.
As if that wasn't enough the we are expected to believe the government seriously plans to throw another giant spanner into the works and erect the biggest possible trade barriers between us and our largest overseas market.
This is just not conceivable. And if it's not conceivable it won't happen.
