Saturday 18 April 2020

Refusal to extend the transition: "dangerous and depressing"

The government is involved in a reckless and hopeless gamble in a high-stakes game with the EU. The continued refusal to consider extending the transition and David Frost's tweet yesterday suggesting  the government would refuse to agree even if the EU asked is only going to end in a mega climbdown. Johnson and Cummings are betting the shop on a pair of deuces.

The stark reality of the situation we are getting ourselves into is set out by one of this blog's favourite writers on Brexit, Peter Foster, now at the FT. His sarcastic Twitter thread yesterday summarised the position brilliantly:
We are simply not prepared and not even starting to make preparations for an abrupt change in border controls as of January 1st next year, now just eight short months away, most of which will be taken up with managing coronavirus.  Neither business or the government is ready as Foster points out.

Shane Brennan, CEO of the Cold Chain Federation said:

"We didn't have enough time to put in place the infrastructure, people and systems before covid-19, we certainly don't now. The fact that both sides do not seem willing to admit this is dangerous and depressing.

 "The risk is chaos and confusion that supply chain businesses, that will still be reeling from the covid-19 recession, will be expected to resolve"

The recent shortages and panic buying seen in supermarkets when the supply chains were functioning normally will be as nothing compared to when disruption on a scale never seen before impacts the Dover-Calais route and others that are vital to keep stocks of food, raw materials and parts flowing into this country.

This report from the BBC no less makes it absolutely clear that firms "won't be ready for EU customs exit" and quotes the BCC:

"The British Chambers of Commerce says the government has not invested enough in training for companies faced with new customs paperwork to fill in.

"Ministers have set aside £34m to help up to 250,000 companies that trade with the EU.

"But figures obtained by the BBC under freedom of information show just 878 firms have received a total of £17.5m"

They also quote Alex Veitch, head of international policy at the Freight Trade Association, who said planning for an exit from EU rules at the same time as navigating the coronavirus crisis was "not possible".

The kinds of jobs being furloughed "are those which are crucial to managing Brexit," he added.

"It is the same people wrestling with the international freight challenge who would be the ones planning the Brexit challenge."

Vetch claimed his organisation was NOT planning to ask for an extension before the pandemic hit which surprises me since I don't see any signs that the government has built a stick of the infrastructure needed to cope with the extra papework burden involved in all the border checks.

The position in NI is still shrouded in mystery.

And while the EI have published a complete 'holistic' trade deal we have hesitated to provide just "six or seven draft texts on trade, aviation, nuclear, justice and home affairs, energy and social security" and nothing on fishing at all although I note in the latest schedule published by the government, fisheries are to be discussed in both full morning and afternoon sessions next Wednesday and Thursday. What will they talk about?

Foster claims:

"What about fish? Isn't there a UK text on fish? Don't we need a deal on fishing quotas by July 1 as a condition of EU doing an FTA?

"Yes. Er, but no, UK hasn't tabled a deal on fish. We're keeping it back. As leverage. And we have talked about fish. Per one account, UK spent 3 hours on a bad video conferencing rehashing its pitch on 'zonal attachments', which the EU says is a quota grabbed dressed up as science. 

"And what was Commission response: ‘no chance’"

What a mess we are in.  The only way out is to get into reverse as quickly as possible.
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