Someone on Twitter has raised an interesting point about whether or not Johnson and company actually know what they're doing in the EU negotiations. Andrew Levi thinks they do. He also believes they know they have boxed themselves into a corner. I agree with him. What is being played out is exactly what their strategy was always going to lead to. Johnson's own 'manifesto' published in The Telegraph in September 2017 argued to be out of the customs union and the single market - even though he was in favour of it in 2013. Now the price must be paid.
Johnson and Cummings have always believed Britain needed to threaten some really severe damage to itself and the EU before Brussels would offer a good deal and so the current state of play is not unexpected. This is Mr Levi's Twitter thread by the way:
It’s frustrating to see @DavidGHFrost belittled by Twitter “experts”, for supposedly not understanding politics, the EU, or negotiation. He does. The problem he & @BorisJohnson have is they’re boxed into a corner. And they know it. Though, understandably, they won’t admit it./1.— Andrew Levi (@AndrewPRLevi) August 28, 2020
He says what they are now faced with is an "escapologist’s nightmare" with three possible options or outcomes - (a) agree CU+SM-type arrangement but pretend it’s something else; (b) kick can down road, hoping that something will turn up; or (c) hammer the country & (for self-preservation) blame others.
The first option, Mr Levi says would end Johnson and Frost's career in the Tory party overnight so we can rule that out. I agree, so this leaves just two options which he claims they are considering. The Sunday Times has a headline this morning: PM threatens no-deal Brexit over EU’s state aid rules with Frost apparently about to tell Barnier Britain will leave without a deal unless he drops the demand for a level playing field, especially concerning state aid rules.
This also is career ending move but with a question mark about whether Johnson realises it or not.
I think where all the Brexiteers have gone wrong is to overestimate British industry and commerce. We know that many, if not all, sectors of the economy are desperately worried about leaving without a trade deal. Many have been consulted but have signed non-disclosure agreements so can't speak out. Even more are relying on government money to survive at the moment, all of which means the voice of business is subdued.
However, we have now run out of road. Barnier and Frost are to meet in London this week for a head-to-head meeting to try and keep the talks going. I don't believe this is going to deliver a breakthrough. The next full round of talks begins on 7 September and this is really the last chance to get the outlines of a deal agreed and ready to be ratified by the end of October.
Will the EU blink as Johnson hopes? I doubt it. Their position on the level playing field was agreed in April 2017 and they have stuck by it for three years. I don't see any shift - least of all when you consider this is a bloc of 27 nations and 450 million people. The EU will call our bluff.
So, it's finally decision time for Johnson. Even if he himself and Frost and Gove all believe a no-deal Brexit is fine (and we know Gove has personally said it will be a disaster for British agriculture) the moment they announce the talks have broken down and we are leaving without a deal expect all hell to break loose.
Industry will speak out. Nissan and Vauxhall will respond with threats of plant closures, and The City will shout about loss of access, the NFU will come out fighting and the supermarkets will wash their hands of guaranteeing food supplies. Sterling will plunge in value.
It is this sort of response that the government must be worried about. The drawing back of the Wizard of Oz curtain, the revealing of the low value cards in Frost's hands or letting the air out of the inflatable tanks lined up on the south downs. This is what they have feared all along, that the threats of leaving without a deal are empty. The emperor would be exposed.
I think this is what it will take to force a kicking of the can down the road. It is the least damaging option and in a way this is what a bare-bones deal was always intended to do. It was never seen as a long term solution since other aspects would have to be negotiated later - foreign and defence policies, repatriating illegal immigrants, judicial cooperation and so on.
The EU do not want to be seen collapsing the talks but the time has come to inject some certainty into the situation and I think Barnier will bring an uncompromising message from the EU27. Unless Britain is prepared to climbdown the week after, Barnier will say, the talks are at an end. It will be an explosive moment, a high-stakes game that we were always going to lose.
Johnson is cornered and there are no good options in prospect. There will be no 'with one bound Jack was free' moment for him.
