As we approach the end game after all the tortuous political manoeuvring and lengthy negotiations, where nothing has actually changed very much in practice, I am beginning to wonder how the average Daily Express, Mail, Sun and Telegraph reader is going to take the inevitable capitulation. Over the last four years they have come to believe Britain is negotiating from a position of strength and the poor deal we eventually agree to will come as a profound shock to many.
I think this will be particularly hard on Express readers who have been fed a daily diet of jingoism since 2015 at least.
The latest piece is about fishing. A fishing 'chief,' Mr Barrie Deas of the National Federation of Fishermen's Organisations, claims that "many EU states are vulnerable without a trade deal on fisheries."
I am afraid this is what he would like to think rather than the reality. It is as if Britain is negotiating with a bunch of simple natives to buy Manhattan for a few baubles. Fishing is not that big an industry and it certainly isn't worth collapsing the entire economy for, so Mr Deas and a few thousand fishermen will be furious to find they have been betrayed yet again.
Next, the lurid headline: Boris Johnson threatens no-deal Brexit in crushing ultimatum to the EU's constant demands is another of those Boris gives the EU a mouthful articles that the Express publish on a daily basis. The idea that the EU will be 'crushed' is so far from the truth yet seems to be the staple diet of Express readers.
Nigel Farage backer Richard Tice is urging Frost and Johnson to demand negotiators "finalise what they agree on now and leave sticking points to later phases" - one wonders what he's been doing for the past three years. The EU will never agree to this and have consistently said there must be an over arching agreement, which there will be. Leaving the 'sticking points' to later would mean losing all or most of the massive leverage they have.
He told the Express: “I still think that a partial deal will be achieved at the eleventh hour. It will allow both sides to claim they’ve maintained some of their red lines."
"Split it into phases, agree what you can agree, get it done, get it signed and move to the next phase."
This will never happen but I note he adds:
“There’s still a possibility of no deal. I am completely relaxed about no deal.”
This last sentence, or something very like it, is used by all the Brexiteers and is becoming like a nervous tic revealing that we are actually desperate about getting a deal. Everybody knows this is not true and leaving WITH a deal will be bad enough but leaving without one would. in the short and medium term, be devastating to many sectors.
And while some people claim that the whole thing was never about money but sovereignty, leaving without a trade deal will give Brexit a bad name with many in the centre ground who actually believed all the lies. And when Britain eventually goes cap in hand to Brussels to get a trade deal - accepting the level playing field and state aid rules - it will demonstrate that Brexit was always about money AND sovereignty - and that we are the loser in both.
To accept a deal where we are constantly under the scrutiny of Brussels, with EU bureaucrats checking our state aid and competition policy and being punished for transgressions with tariffs or loss of market access will be a reminder of what we gave up in June 2016.
The next couple of months will be painful to watch for many Brexiteers and hard line leavers. These are the people likely to be most disappointed.
I see that there is the beginning of speculation about tax rises to come with The Telegraph warning that they could "choke off" the recovery. Their report says:
Downing Street is also opposed to the move, with Boris Johnson telling ministers that other measures, such as cutting Whitehall spending, should be considered first.
Marcus Fysh, a Tory backbencher, said tax increases would be the "wrong response" to the coronavirus crisis and urged Mr Johnson to “resist” them. He said: “We need to help the economy not strangle it. These mixed messages are in themselves damaging and must stop."
John Redwood, a former Cabinet minister, said: "You cannot tax your way to faster growth and more prosperity. We need policies to promote more jobs and activity to get the deficit down."
How odd that burdening your own industry with £14 billion a year in customs formalities on exports and imports is perfectly OK but raising corporation tax to 24% is to 'strangle' the economy. Recruiting form fillers is a good thing to "promote activity" apparently.
They used to be conservatives.
Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, warned: “Raising the tax burden on business and entrepreneurs before they have a chance to recover could create serious issues for the trajectory of the UK’s overall recovery. It could slow investment, it could slow risk taking among entrepreneurs and growth businesses.
“Everybody in business understands the public finances have to be repaired but do it too early and you risk choking off growth at the crucial moment.”
Anybody who thinks leaving without a deal is even a remote possibility should go an lie down for a bit.
