The big news this morning is that Michael Gove will be travelling to Brussels with David Frost and the rest of the British negotiators for the ninth round of talks. I assume this means we are preparing either to offer concessions or to tell Barnier to his face that the talking is over. From the FT's report yesterday: ‘Every week is an ordeal’: Johnson under pressure over Brexit and lockdown, I would suggest it's the former. The government seems to have finally realised it needs a deal. I suppose the thought of yet more chaos piled on coronavirus and what looks like another lockdown is just too much.
Johnson is apparently coming under pressure from his own MPs to do something right at last.
Labour's rapidly improving position in the polls has rattled the Tory party. I have always thought most of the British government's strategy was spent creating the impression we might, just might go for no deal. It was never even a remote possibility and I think the EU never thought it was.
The FT outline all the problems and then go on to say:
“There’s definitely going to be a deal,” says one senior MP close to Mr Sunak. “Boris has basically decided he’s going to accept a deal, but he has to go out and get a bloody face first. It was what he did in 2019 — he talked tough, then signed up to the Brexit deal that was on the table. Cummings and Boris have told Rishi to trust them; ‘it’s going to be OK’.”
There seems to be slightly more optimism that Britain has decided it can't risk a disaster in January and Gove traveling to Brussels points in that direction, possibly to try and figure out a way of presenting defeat as victory.
The government's clumsy attempt at trying to override the WA has not helped trust:
"However, EU diplomats say that would require a big leap by both sides and Mr Johnson’s willingness to flout international law has only hardened Brussels’ determination to have a robust mechanism to deal with possible disputes over state aid or other potential violations of the deal. EU officials say “governance” has emerged as a problem area in the talks because the bill has further hardened the EU’s will to secure ironclad guarantees of good UK behaviour, backed by the means for rapid retaliation."
But the mood around the talks has become more positive in London in recent days. Downing Street said: “We are now in the final period of negotiations. There remains a lot of work to do and either outcome is possible.”
Both sides will move but we will have to move the most. Time is short, we are totally unprepared and need a transition or implementation period otherwise Brexit is going to be forever tainted.
It will be a disaster regardless and I think Gove recognises that, with all the extra paperwork and delays hitting cross border trade, particularly exports which will take a dive in the new year. This may not be in January if an extension to the transition is agreed, but it will happen eventually and I honestly think many leave voters will be shocked. Prices will rise and choice will be limited.
But Johnsons biggest problem will be selling the deal to Tory MPs. This will take some doing and when Cash, Baker, Jenkins and co see the details of what we have agreed to, with cast-iron guarantees, there will be a rupture in the party.
All of this will, in my opinion, be a good thing because it will finally prove that having your cake and eating it was never possible. Johnson will be seen to have secured a deal which is in fact the worst of all possible worlds.
We will suffer a mountain of paperwork on both exports and imports with consequent delays and costs. We will be constrained in many ways by EU laws albeit probably through an independent dispute mechanism whose findings will be no different to the ECJ. The NI border will eventually result in a border poll and a united Ireland.
Scotland will get a second referendum and will become independent and will join the euro. The much vaunted trade deals with the USA, India and everybody else will not make up trade lost with Europe and immigration levels will continue at high levels but with immigrants from far flung places rather than our next door neighbours. The economy will take years to recover for covid-19 and Brexit and we will never reach the growth rate of Europe.
At some point, probably in the mid 2020s the penny will drop.
